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Nuggets at Bucks

NBA · Friday, Jan 23 · 8:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final DEN 102 – MIL 100
← NBA / Jan 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN21273024102
MIL21212137100
Team box
DEN·MIL
35-87
field goals
34-85
12-41
3-pointers
12-39
20-23
free throws
20-27
47
rebounds
51
27
assists
24
8
turnovers
11
46
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3222137
Ryan RollinsMIL352141
Julian StrawtherDEN272053
Myles TurnerMIL291772
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN261742
Bruce BrownDEN261533

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +23
DEN +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 5 · DEN 23lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 58%, MIL 42% · Updated Jan 23

Expected margin
DEN by 2.8
Expected score
DEN 118.4 – 115.6 MIL
Expected total
234.0
NuggetsThe matchupBucks
−137Our fair odds+137
118.4Expected points115.6
+0.45Power rating−0.11
121.1Points / game112.2
116.5Allowed / game115.8
49.9FG%48.4
39.43P%39.5
42.2Rebounds / game40.4
30−15Season record18−25
7−3Last 104−6
Cameron Johnson · Christian Braun
Nikola Jokic · Tamar BatesOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair57.9%42.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−13758%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+13742%————
SpreadDEN by 2.8
DENDenver Nuggets−2.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.0
Over234.0our total————
Under234.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 2.8 expected
Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%
← DEN wins byMIL wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more48%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more33%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.0 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.567%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.529%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJalen Pickettstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FZeke Nnajistarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Harrisstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·MIL
Jan 22 at WSH
last game
Jan 21 vs OKC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 23, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJamal Murray · right hamstring; inflammation/left hip inflammationQuestionable
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainQuestionable
DENPeyton Watson · right ankle; strain/left ankle sprainQuestionable
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainProbable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · oblique muscle; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILAJ Green · n/a; illnessQuestionable
MILGary Trent Jr. · n/a; illnessQuestionable
MILMyles Turner · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
DEN·MIL
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
121.1
points / game
112.2
116.5
points allowed / game
115.8
30−15
season record
18−25
12−8
home record
9−11
18−7
away record
9−14
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
49.9
FG%
48.4
39.4
3P%
39.5
42.2
rebounds / game
40.4
28.2
assists / game
26.3
12.7
turnovers / game
14.8
48.7
points in paint / game
44.4

Rating Trend

DEN · MIL · 86 days
Denver NuggetsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 4−5
Jan 11at DENDEN 108 − 104
Mar 26, 2025at DENDEN 127 − 117
Feb 27, 2025at MILMIL 121 − 112
Feb 12, 2024at MILMIL 112 − 95
Jan 29, 2024at DENDEN 113 − 107
Mar 25, 2023at DENDEN 129 − 106
Jan 25, 2023at MILMIL 107 − 99
Jan 30, 2022at MILDEN 136 − 100
Nov 26, 2021at DENMIL 120 − 109

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 22at WSH107 − 97W
Jan 20vs LAL107 − 115L
Jan 18vs CHA87 − 110L
Jan 17vs WSH121 − 115W
Jan 14at DAL118 − 109W
Jan 13at NO122 − 116W
Jan 11vs MIL108 − 104W
Jan 9vs ATL87 − 110L
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 21vs OKC102 − 122L
Jan 19at ATL112 − 110W
Jan 15at SA101 − 119L
Jan 13vs MIN106 − 139L
Jan 11at DEN104 − 108L
Jan 9at LAL105 − 101W
Jan 7at GS113 − 120L
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L