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Nuggets at Wizards

NBA · Thursday, Jan 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final DEN 107 – WSH 97
← NBA / Jan 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN27213326107
WSH2323292297
Team box
DEN·WSH
37-83
field goals
32-84
9-26
3-pointers
13-43
24-26
free throws
20-24
46
rebounds
42
22
assists
20
14
turnovers
14
44
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Peyton WatsonDEN403583
Jamal MurrayDEN362445
Kyshawn GeorgeWSH3420127
Tre JohnsonWSH341933
Jonas ValanciunasDEN221692
Aaron GordonDEN331655

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +12
DEN +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 1 · DEN 12lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 80%, WSH 20% · Updated Jan 22

Expected margin
DEN by 13.0
Expected score
DEN 126.5 – 113.5 WSH
Expected total
240.0
NuggetsThe matchupWizards
−407Our fair odds+407
126.5Expected points113.5
+0.45Power rating−1.21
121.4Points / game112.5
117.0Allowed / game123.6
50.0FG%46.1
39.53P%35.3
42.2Rebounds / game44.0
29−15Season record10−32
6−4Last 102−8
Cameron Johnson · Christian Braun
Curtis Jones · Nikola Jokic
Tamar BatesOut (5 each)Bilal Coulibaly · Cam Whitmore
Marvin Bagley III · Trae Young
Tristan Vukcevic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair80.3%19.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−40780%————
WSHWashington Wizards+40720%————
SpreadDEN by 13.0
DENDenver Nuggets−13our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+13our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.0
Over240.0our total————
Under240.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 13.0 expected
Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 4%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 4%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%
← DEN wins byWSH wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more76%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more60%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more43%
Within 5 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.0 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.567%
Total over 240.547%
Total over 250.530%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
CJonas Valanciunasstarted
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·WSH
Jan 20 vs LAL
last game
Jan 19 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 22, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainQuestionable
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainProbable
DENJamal Murray · left hip; inflammationProbable
DENTim Hardaway Jr. · right knee; contusionProbable
Washington Wizards
WSHBilal Coulibaly · lower back; strainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHMarvin Bagley III · n/a; illnessOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut
WSHTristan Vukcevic · left hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
DEN·WSH
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
−1.21
121.4
points / game
112.5
117.0
points allowed / game
123.6
29−15
season record
10−32
12−8
home record
6−14
17−7
away record
4−18
L2
streak
L7
6−4
last 10
2−8
50.0
FG%
46.1
39.5
3P%
35.3
42.2
rebounds / game
44.0
28.3
assists / game
25.2
12.7
turnovers / game
15.7
48.8
points in paint / game
47.6

Rating Trend

DEN · WSH · 85 days
Denver NuggetsWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 2−7
Jan 17at DENDEN 121 − 115
Mar 15, 2025at DENWSH 126 − 123
Dec 7, 2024at WSHWSH 122 − 113
Feb 22, 2024at DENDEN 130 − 110
Jan 21, 2024at WSHDEN 113 − 104
Mar 22, 2023at WSHDEN 118 − 104
Dec 14, 2022at DENDEN 141 − 128
Mar 16, 2022at WSHDEN 127 − 109
Dec 13, 2021at DENDEN 113 − 107

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jan 20vs LAL107 − 115L
Jan 18vs CHA87 − 110L
Jan 17vs WSH121 − 115W
Jan 14at DAL118 − 109W
Jan 13at NO122 − 116W
Jan 11vs MIL108 − 104W
Jan 9vs ATL87 − 110L
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Jan 19vs LAC106 − 110L
Jan 17at DEN115 − 121L
Jan 16at SAC115 − 128L
Jan 14at LAC105 − 119L
Jan 11at PHX93 − 112L
Jan 9vs NO107 − 128L
Jan 7at PHI110 − 131L
Jan 6vs ORL120 − 112W
Jan 4vs MIN115 − 141L
Jan 2vs BKN119 − 99W