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Clippers at Nuggets

NBA · Friday, Jan 30 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final LAC 109 – DEN 122
← NBA / Jan 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC27233029109
DEN35243330122
Team box
LAC·DEN
40-86
field goals
40-73
14-40
3-pointers
16-28
15-21
free throws
26-32
34
rebounds
43
29
assists
30
9
turnovers
13
44
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN2531125
James HardenLAC342559
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN252220
Kawhi LeonardLAC312136
Peyton WatsonDEN352143
Jamal MurrayDEN362049

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +18
LAC +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 18 · LAC 7lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 39%, DEN 61% · Updated Jan 30

Expected margin
DEN by 3.5
Expected score
DEN 116.2 – 112.7 LAC
Expected total
228.8
ClippersThe matchupNuggets
+157Our fair odds−157
112.7Expected points116.2
+0.19Power rating+0.42
112.7Points / game120.1
112.8Allowed / game115.8
47.7FG%49.6
36.63P%39.3
40.7Rebounds / game42.5
22−24Season record32−16
9−1Last 107−3
Bogdan Bogdanovic · Bradley Beal
Chris Paul · Derrick Jones Jr.
TyTy Washington Jr.Out (5 each)Aaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Curtis Jones
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · DEN chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers+15739%————
DENDenver Nuggets−15761%————
SpreadDEN by 3.5
LACLA Clippers+3.5our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.8
Over228.8our total————
Under228.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 3.5 expected
LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 25 points: <1%LA Clippers by 24 points: <1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 15 points: 1%LA Clippers by 14 points: 1%LA Clippers by 13 points: 1%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 7 points: 2%LA Clippers by 6 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%
← LAC wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more50%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more35%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.8 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GKris Dunnstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
CIvica Zubacstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·DEN
Jan 27 at UTAH
last game
Jan 29 vs BKN
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 30, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBogdan Bogdanovic · left hamstring; injury managementOut
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACChris Paul · not with teamOut
LACDerrick Jones Jr. · right knee; sprainOut
LACTyTy Washington Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; boneOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENNikola Jokic · bruise left knee; bone bruiseQuestionable
DENJamal Murray · right hamstring; inflammation/left hip inflammationProbable
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
LAC·DEN
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
112.7
points / game
120.1
112.8
points allowed / game
115.8
22−24
season record
32−16
13−9
home record
13−9
9−15
away record
19−7
W3
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
7−3
47.7
FG%
49.6
36.6
3P%
39.3
40.7
rebounds / game
42.5
23.5
assists / game
27.9
14.8
turnovers / game
12.5
46.4
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

LAC · DEN · 93 days
LA ClippersDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 7−3
Nov 12, 2025at LACDEN 130 − 116
May 3, 2025at DENDEN 120 − 101post
May 1, 2025at LACLAC 111 − 105post
Apr 29, 2025at DENDEN 131 − 115post
Apr 26, 2025at LACDEN 101 − 99post
Apr 24, 2025at LACLAC 117 − 83post
Apr 21, 2025at DENLAC 105 − 102post
Apr 19, 2025at DENDEN 112 − 110post
Jan 8, 2025at DENDEN 126 − 103
Dec 13, 2024at DENDEN 120 − 98

LAC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Jan 27at UTAH115 − 103W
Jan 25vs BKN126 − 89W
Jan 22vs LAL112 − 104W
Jan 20at CHI110 − 138L
Jan 19at WSH110 − 106W
Jan 16at TOR121 − 117W
Jan 14vs WSH119 − 105W
Jan 12vs CHA117 − 109W
Jan 10at DET98 − 92W
Jan 9at BKN121 − 105W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 29vs BKN107 − 103W
Jan 27vs DET107 − 109L
Jan 23at MIL102 − 100W
Jan 22at WSH107 − 97W
Jan 20vs LAL107 − 115L
Jan 18vs CHA87 − 110L
Jan 17vs WSH121 − 115W
Jan 14at DAL118 − 109W
Jan 13at NO122 − 116W
Jan 11vs MIL108 − 104W