bayesRatings

Clippers at Jazz

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 27 · 9:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final LAC 115 – UTAH 103

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC18353626115
UTAH29252029103
Team box
LAC·UTAH
41-88
field goals
37-82
18-46
3-pointers
12-33
15-21
free throws
17-21
39
rebounds
40
27
assists
28
11
turnovers
17
40
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kawhi LeonardLAC282174
Ace BaileyUTAH292010
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH291954
James HardenLAC3116310
Brook LopezLAC201450
Kris DunnLAC311422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +21
LAC +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 11 · LAC 21lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 69%, UTAH 31% · Updated Jan 27

Expected margin
LAC by 8.7
Expected score
LAC 123.5 – 114.8 UTAH
Expected total
238.3
ClippersThe matchupJazz
−218Our fair odds+218
123.5Expected points114.8
+0.19Power rating−0.82
112.6Points / game119.0
113.0Allowed / game127.8
47.7FG%46.8
36.53P%34.9
40.7Rebounds / game44.0
21−24Season record15−31
8−2Last 103−7
Bogdan Bogdanovic · Bradley Beal
Chris Paul · Derrick Jones Jr.
TyTy Washington Jr.
Out (5 each)Elijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Jusuf Nurkic
Keyonte George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair68.5%31.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers−21869%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+21831%————
SpreadLAC by 8.7
LACLA Clippers−8.7our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+8.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.3
Over238.3our total————
Under238.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 8.7 expected
LA Clippers by 49 points: <1%LA Clippers by 48 points: <1%LA Clippers by 47 points: <1%LA Clippers by 46 points: <1%LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: 1%LA Clippers by 35 points: 1%LA Clippers by 34 points: 1%LA Clippers by 33 points: 1%LA Clippers by 32 points: 1%LA Clippers by 31 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 2%LA Clippers by 19 points: 2%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 3%LA Clippers by 15 points: 3%LA Clippers by 14 points: 3%LA Clippers by 13 points: 3%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%
← LAC wins byUTAH wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more65%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more48%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

238.3 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GKris Dunnstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
CIvica Zubacstarted
Utah Jazz
GAce Baileystarted
FKevin Lovestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·UTAH
Jan 25 vs BKN
last game
Jan 24 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 27, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBogdan Bogdanovic · left hamstring; injury managementOut
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACChris Paul · not with teamOut
LACDerrick Jones Jr. · right knee; sprainOut
LACTyTy Washington Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
LACKawhi Leonard · left knee; contusionQuestionable
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · n/a; illnessOut
UTAHKeyonte George · restOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
LAC·UTAH
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.82
112.6
points / game
119.0
113.0
points allowed / game
127.8
21−24
season record
15−31
13−9
home record
10−14
8−15
away record
5−17
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
3−7
47.7
FG%
46.8
36.5
3P%
34.9
40.7
rebounds / game
44.0
23.4
assists / game
30.3
14.9
turnovers / game
15.7
46.5
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

LAC · UTAH · 90 days
LA ClippersUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 3−7
Jan 1at LACLAC 118 − 101
Oct 22, 2025at UTAHUTAH 129 − 108
Feb 13, 2025at UTAHLAC 120 − 116
Feb 8, 2025at LACLAC 130 − 110
Dec 16, 2024at LACLAC 144 − 107
Nov 17, 2024at LACLAC 116 − 105
Apr 12, 2024at LACUTAH 110 − 109
Apr 5, 2024at LACLAC 131 − 102
Dec 8, 2023at UTAHLAC 117 − 103
Oct 27, 2023at UTAHUTAH 120 − 118

LAC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jan 25vs BKN126 − 89W
Jan 22vs LAL112 − 104W
Jan 20at CHI110 − 138L
Jan 19at WSH110 − 106W
Jan 16at TOR121 − 117W
Jan 14vs WSH119 − 105W
Jan 12vs CHA117 − 109W
Jan 10at DET98 − 92W
Jan 9at BKN121 − 105W
Jan 7at NY111 − 123L

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jan 24vs MIA116 − 147L
Jan 22vs SA109 − 126L
Jan 20vs MIN127 − 122W
Jan 19at SA110 − 123L
Jan 17at DAL120 − 138L
Jan 15at DAL122 − 144L
Jan 14at CHI126 − 128L
Jan 12at CLE123 − 112W
Jan 10vs CHA95 − 150L
Jan 8vs DAL116 − 114W