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Pistons at Nuggets

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 27 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final DET 109 – DEN 107
← NBA / Jan 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET31213027109
DEN18282635107
Team box
DET·DEN
44-94
field goals
40-84
6-31
3-pointers
10-29
15-18
free throws
17-23
41
rebounds
49
24
assists
22
7
turnovers
15
64
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN3924510
Cade CunninghamDET3622311
Tobias HarrisDET312283
Jonas ValanciunasDEN3116161
Bruce BrownDEN231672
Jalen DurenDET301480

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +18
DET +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 2 · DET 18lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 45%, DEN 55% · Updated Jan 27

Expected margin
DEN by 0.8
Expected score
DEN 116.7 – 115.9 DET
Expected total
232.6
PistonsThe matchupNuggets
+121Our fair odds−121
115.9Expected points116.7
+0.44Power rating+0.42
117.4Points / game120.7
110.1Allowed / game116.2
48.2FG%49.7
35.33P%39.2
46.0Rebounds / game42.3
33−11Season record31−15
8−2Last 107−3
Caris LeVert · Isaac Jones
Tolu Smith · Wendell Moore Jr.OutAaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Nikola Jokic
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · DEN chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+12145%————
DENDenver Nuggets−12155%————
SpreadDEN by 0.8
DETDetroit Pistons+0.8our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.6
Over232.6our total————
Under232.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 0.8 expected
Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%
← DET wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more43%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more29%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

232.6 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CJonas Valanciunasstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·DEN
Jan 25 vs SAC
last game
Jan 23 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 26, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETCaris LeVert · illness; illnessOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJamal Murray · right hamstring; inflammation/left hip inflammationProbable
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainProbable
DENPeyton Watson · right ankle; strain/left ankle sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
DET·DEN
+0.44
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
117.4
points / game
120.7
110.1
points allowed / game
116.2
33−11
season record
31−15
19−5
home record
12−8
14−6
away record
19−7
W1
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
7−3
48.2
FG%
49.7
35.3
3P%
39.2
46.0
rebounds / game
42.3
26.7
assists / game
28.1
16.0
turnovers / game
12.6
56.7
points in paint / game
48.7

Rating Trend

DET · DEN · 90 days
Detroit PistonsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DEN 7−1
Feb 28, 2025at DETDEN 134 − 119
Dec 28, 2024at DENDEN 134 − 121
Jan 7, 2024at DENDEN 131 − 114
Nov 20, 2023at DETDEN 107 − 103
Mar 16, 2023at DETDEN 119 − 100
Nov 22, 2022at DENDET 110 − 108
Jan 25, 2022at DETDEN 110 − 105
Jan 23, 2022at DENDEN 117 − 111

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Jan 25vs SAC139 − 116W
Jan 23vs HOU104 − 111L
Jan 21at NO112 − 104W
Jan 19vs BOS104 − 103W
Jan 17vs IND121 − 78W
Jan 15vs PHX108 − 105W
Jan 10vs LAC92 − 98L
Jan 7vs CHI108 − 93W
Jan 5vs NY121 − 90W
Jan 4at CLE114 − 110W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 23at MIL102 − 100W
Jan 22at WSH107 − 97W
Jan 20vs LAL107 − 115L
Jan 18vs CHA87 − 110L
Jan 17vs WSH121 − 115W
Jan 14at DAL118 − 109W
Jan 13at NO122 − 116W
Jan 11vs MIL108 − 104W
Jan 9vs ATL87 − 110L
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W