bayesRatings

Kings at Pistons

NBA · Sunday, Jan 25 · 2:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final SAC 116 – DET 139
← NBA / Jan 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC35302823116
DET35433526139
Team box
SAC·DET
44-84
field goals
50-91
11-25
3-pointers
16-31
17-28
free throws
23-28
33
rebounds
43
32
assists
31
19
turnovers
19
52
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cade CunninghamDET3029511
Malik MonkSAC221912
Jalen DurenDET241861
Tobias HarrisDET241623
DeMar DeRozanSAC191604
Dennis SchroderSAC251517

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +25
SAC +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 25 · SAC 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 25%, DET 75% · Updated Jan 25

Expected margin
DET by 10.8
Expected score
DET 119.2 – 108.3 SAC
Expected total
227.5
KingsThe matchupPistons
+305Our fair odds−305
108.3Expected points119.2
−0.45Power rating+0.44
110.9Points / game116.9
120.8Allowed / game110.0
46.8FG%48.1
35.03P%34.9
41.0Rebounds / game46.0
12−34Season record32−11
4−6Last 107−3
Daeqwon Plowden · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray · Zach LaVineOut (4 each)Caris LeVert · Isaac Jones
Tolu Smith · Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · DET chance
Our model fair24.7%75.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+30525%————
DETDetroit Pistons−30575%————
SpreadDET by 10.8
SACSacramento Kings+10.8our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−10.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.5
Over227.5our total————
Under227.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 10.8 expected
Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 50 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 51 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 52 points: <1%
← SAC wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more68%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more53%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.5 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FDomantas Sabonisstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·DET
Jan 23 at CLE
last game
Jan 23 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 25, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACZach LaVine · low back; sorenessOut
Detroit Pistons
DETCaris LeVert · illness; illnessOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
SAC·DET
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.44
110.9
points / game
116.9
120.8
points allowed / game
110.0
12−34
season record
32−11
9−16
home record
18−5
3−18
away record
14−6
L4
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
46.8
FG%
48.1
35.0
3P%
34.9
41.0
rebounds / game
46.0
25.3
assists / game
26.6
14.4
turnovers / game
16.0
48.4
points in paint / game
56.7

Rating Trend

SAC · DET · 88 days
Sacramento KingsDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 4−5
Dec 23, 2025at SACDET 136 − 127
Apr 7, 2025at DETSAC 127 − 117
Dec 26, 2024at SACDET 114 − 113
Feb 7, 2024at SACDET 133 − 120
Jan 9, 2024at DETSAC 131 − 110
Dec 16, 2022at DETSAC 122 − 113
Nov 20, 2022at SACSAC 137 − 129
Jan 19, 2022at SACDET 133 − 131
Nov 15, 2021at DETSAC 129 − 107

SAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 23at CLE118 − 123L
Jan 21vs TOR109 − 122L
Jan 20vs MIA117 − 130L
Jan 18vs POR110 − 117L
Jan 16vs WSH128 − 115W
Jan 14vs NY112 − 101W
Jan 12vs LAL124 − 112W
Jan 11vs HOU111 − 98W
Jan 9at GS103 − 137L
Jan 6vs DAL98 − 100L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 23vs HOU104 − 111L
Jan 21at NO112 − 104W
Jan 19vs BOS104 − 103W
Jan 17vs IND121 − 78W
Jan 15vs PHX108 − 105W
Jan 10vs LAC92 − 98L
Jan 7vs CHI108 − 93W
Jan 5vs NY121 − 90W
Jan 4at CLE114 − 110W
Jan 1vs MIA112 − 118L