bayesRatings

Rockets at Pistons

NBA · Friday, Jan 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final HOU 111 – DET 104
← NBA / Jan 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU28243425111
DET20322032104
Team box
HOU·DET
39-79
field goals
40-84
9-26
3-pointers
7-32
24-30
free throws
17-24
43
rebounds
35
21
assists
22
17
turnovers
17
50
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU413273
Alperen SengunHOU301915
Jalen DurenDET261870
Reed SheppardHOU251801
Isaiah StewartDET251642
Amen ThompsonHOU401597

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +14
HOU +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 4 · HOU 14lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 46%, DET 54% · Updated Jan 23

Expected margin
DET by 1.9
Expected score
DET 112.6 – 110.7 HOU
Expected total
223.3
RocketsThe matchupPistons
+119Our fair odds−119
110.7Expected points112.6
+0.51Power rating+0.44
117.1Points / game117.2
111.0Allowed / game109.9
48.2FG%48.1
37.63P%35.2
49.0Rebounds / game46.3
26−16Season record32−10
5−5Last 108−2
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Steven Adams · Tari Eason
Tristen NewtonOutCaris LeVert · Isaac Jones
Tolu Smith · Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+11946%————
DETDetroit Pistons−11954%————
SpreadDET by 1.9
HOUHouston Rockets+1.9our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.3
Over223.3our total————
Under223.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 1.9 expected
Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%
← HOU wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more46%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more31%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.3 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·DET
Jan 22 at PHI
last game
Jan 21 at NO
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 23, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; injury managementOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; sprainOut
HOUTari Eason · right ankle; injury managementOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUAaron Holiday · back; spasmsQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETCaris LeVert · illness; illnessOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETCade Cunningham · left hip; contusion; illnessProbable
DETRonald Holland II · illness; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
HOU·DET
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.44
117.1
points / game
117.2
111.0
points allowed / game
109.9
26−16
season record
32−10
15−3
home record
18−4
11−13
away record
14−6
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
8−2
48.2
FG%
48.1
37.6
3P%
35.2
49.0
rebounds / game
46.3
25.0
assists / game
26.7
15.6
turnovers / game
16.0
53.0
points in paint / game
56.7

Rating Trend

HOU · DET · 86 days
Houston RocketsDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 3−6
Oct 24, 2025at HOUDET 115 − 111
Jan 20, 2025at HOUDET 107 − 96
Nov 10, 2024at DETHOU 101 − 99
Jan 12, 2024at DETHOU 112 − 110
Jan 1, 2024at HOUHOU 136 − 113
Mar 31, 2023at HOUHOU 121 − 115
Jan 28, 2023at DETHOU 117 − 114
Dec 18, 2021at DETHOU 116 − 107
Nov 10, 2021at HOUDET 112 − 104

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 18vs NO119 − 110W
Jan 16vs MIN110 − 105W
Jan 15vs OKC91 − 111L
Jan 13vs CHI119 − 113W
Jan 11at SAC98 − 111L
Jan 9at POR105 − 111L
Jan 7at POR102 − 103L
Jan 5vs PHX100 − 97W

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jan 21at NO112 − 104W
Jan 19vs BOS104 − 103W
Jan 17vs IND121 − 78W
Jan 15vs PHX108 − 105W
Jan 10vs LAC92 − 98L
Jan 7vs CHI108 − 93W
Jan 5vs NY121 − 90W
Jan 4at CLE114 − 110W
Jan 1vs MIA112 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025at LAL128 − 106W