bayesRatings

Pelicans at Rockets

NBA · Sunday, Jan 18 · 6:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final NO 110 – HOU 119
← NBA / Jan 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO30242630110
HOU32322332119
Team box
NO·HOU
44-88
field goals
45-90
10-26
3-pointers
13-36
12-15
free throws
16-22
39
rebounds
47
27
assists
22
14
turnovers
15
64
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU413280
Alperen SengunHOU332184
Trey Murphy IIINO352134
Amen ThompsonHOU402086
Zion WilliamsonNO302064
Kevin DurantHOU361868

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +19
NO +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 19 · NO 3lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 18%, HOU 82% · Updated Jan 18

Expected margin
HOU by 13.5
Expected score
HOU 121.3 – 107.8 NO
Expected total
229.2
PelicansThe matchupRockets
+445Our fair odds−445
107.8Expected points121.3
−0.80Power rating+0.49
115.0Points / game117.1
122.3Allowed / game110.7
46.4FG%48.1
34.43P%37.5
43.4Rebounds / game49.2
10−34Season record24−15
2−8Last 105−5
Dejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Jose Alvarado
Trey AlexanderOutFred VanVleet · Isaiah Crawford
Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · HOU chance
Our model fair18.4%81.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+44518%————
HOUHouston Rockets−44582%————
SpreadHOU by 13.5
NONew Orleans Pelicans+13.5our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−13.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.2
Over229.2our total————
Under229.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 13.5 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 53 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 53 points: <1%
← NO wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more75%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more61%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more46%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CSteven Adamsstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·HOU
Jan 16 at IND
last game
Jan 16 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 18, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · left oblique; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
NO·HOU
−0.80
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
115.0
points / game
117.1
122.3
points allowed / game
110.7
10−34
season record
24−15
7−18
home record
13−3
3−16
away record
11−12
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
46.4
FG%
48.1
34.4
3P%
37.5
43.4
rebounds / game
49.2
24.8
assists / game
24.7
14.6
turnovers / game
15.6
58.1
points in paint / game
53.1

Rating Trend

NO · HOU · 81 days
New Orleans PelicansHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Dec 18, 2025at NONO 133 − 128
Mar 8, 2025at HOUHOU 146 − 117
Mar 6, 2025at NOHOU 109 − 97
Dec 26, 2024at NOHOU 128 − 111
Dec 19, 2024at HOUHOU 133 − 113
Feb 22, 2024at NONO 127 − 105
Jan 31, 2024at HOUNO 110 − 99
Dec 23, 2023at NOHOU 106 − 104
Nov 10, 2023at HOUHOU 104 − 101
Mar 19, 2023at HOUNO 117 − 107

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jan 16at IND119 − 127L
Jan 14vs BKN116 − 113W
Jan 13vs DEN116 − 122L
Jan 11at ORL118 − 128L
Jan 9at WSH128 − 107W
Jan 7at ATL100 − 117L
Jan 6vs LAL103 − 111L
Jan 4at MIA106 − 125L
Jan 2vs POR109 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 16vs MIN110 − 105W
Jan 15vs OKC91 − 111L
Jan 13vs CHI119 − 113W
Jan 11at SAC98 − 111L
Jan 9at POR105 − 111L
Jan 7at POR102 − 103L
Jan 5vs PHX100 − 97W
Jan 3at DAL104 − 110L
Jan 1at BKN120 − 96W
Dec 29, 2025vs IND126 − 119W