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Magic at Spurs

NBA · Sunday, Feb 1 · 8:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final ORL 103 – SA 112
← NBA / Feb 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL21401824103
SA37232626112
Team box
ORL·SA
40-91
field goals
41-82
10-30
3-pointers
8-29
13-15
free throws
22-32
34
rebounds
48
24
assists
27
15
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA282582
Desmond BaneORL372544
Paolo BancheroORL3519104
Devin VassellSA281623
Dylan HarperSA281565
De'Aaron FoxSA3014310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +18
ORL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 18 · ORL 3lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 39%, SA 61% · Updated Feb 1

Expected margin
SA by 4.6
Expected score
SA 113.7 – 109.1 ORL
Expected total
222.8
MagicThe matchupSpurs
+158Our fair odds−158
109.1Expected points113.7
−0.05Power rating+0.20
115.7Points / game116.9
115.7Allowed / game112.3
46.5FG%47.4
33.83P%34.8
44.0Rebounds / game46.0
25−22Season record32−17
5−5Last 105−5
Colin Castleton · Franz WagnerOut (2 each)David Jones Garcia · Jeremy Sochan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · SA chance
Our model fair38.7%61.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+15839%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−15861%————
SpreadSA by 4.6
ORLOrlando Magic+4.6our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.8
Over222.8our total————
Under222.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 4.6 expected
Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%
← ORL wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more53%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more37%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.8 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.570%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·SA
Jan 30 vs TOR
last game
Jan 31 at CHA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 1, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left quad; strainOut
SAStephon Castle · left adductor; tightnessQuestionable
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
ORL·SA
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
115.7
points / game
116.9
115.7
points allowed / game
112.3
25−22
season record
32−17
15−9
home record
16−6
10−13
away record
16−11
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
46.5
FG%
47.4
33.8
3P%
34.8
44.0
rebounds / game
46.0
26.4
assists / game
26.0
13.9
turnovers / game
13.5
53.2
points in paint / game
49.6

Rating Trend

ORL · SA · 95 days
Orlando MagicSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SA 4−5
Dec 3, 2025at ORLSA 114 − 112
Apr 1, 2025at SAORL 116 − 105
Feb 8, 2025at ORLORL 112 − 111
Feb 8, 2024at ORLORL 127 − 111
Jan 31, 2024at SAORL 108 − 98
Mar 14, 2023at SASA 132 − 114
Dec 23, 2022at ORLORL 133 − 113
Nov 5, 2021at ORLSA 102 − 89
Oct 20, 2021at SASA 123 − 97

ORL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 30vs TOR130 − 120W
Jan 28at MIA133 − 124W
Jan 26at CLE98 − 114L
Jan 24vs CLE105 − 119L
Jan 22vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 18at MEM109 − 126L
Jan 15vs MEM118 − 111W
Jan 11vs NO128 − 118W
Jan 9vs PHI91 − 103L
Jan 7at BKN104 − 103W

SA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 31at CHA106 − 111L
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L
Jan 19vs UTAH123 − 110W
Jan 17vs MIN126 − 123W
Jan 15vs MIL119 − 101W
Jan 13at OKC98 − 119L
Jan 11at MIN103 − 104L