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Pelicans at Spurs

NBA · Sunday, Jan 25 · 6:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final NO 104 – SA 95
← NBA / Jan 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO25312622104
SA2819212795
Team box
NO·SA
41-102
field goals
32-81
9-34
3-pointers
12-44
13-17
free throws
19-32
58
rebounds
46
23
assists
22
10
turnovers
12
56
points in paint
32
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO3324104
Saddiq BeyNO3324104
Trey Murphy IIINO381769
Victor WembanyamaSA3116160
Keldon JohnsonSA281521
Julian ChampagnieSA291341

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +20
NO +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 6 · NO 20lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 22%, SA 78% · Updated Jan 25

Expected margin
SA by 10.3
Expected score
SA 122.4 – 112.0 NO
Expected total
234.4
PelicansThe matchupSpurs
+354Our fair odds−354
112.0Expected points122.4
−0.81Power rating+0.24
115.1Points / game117.8
122.1Allowed / game112.8
46.4FG%47.4
34.23P%35.1
43.5Rebounds / game46.2
11−36Season record31−15
3−7Last 106−4
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey AlexanderOut (3 each)David Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Stanley Umude

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · SA chance
Our model fair22.0%78.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+35422%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−35478%————
SpreadSA by 10.3
NONew Orleans Pelicans+10.3our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−10.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.4
Over234.4our total————
Under234.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 10.3 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 52 points: <1%
← NO wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more67%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more52%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.4 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·SA
Jan 23 at MEM
last game
Jan 22 at UTAH
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 25, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · left oblique; strainQuestionable
NOTrey Murphy III · right hand; sorenessProbable
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SAJordan McLaughlin · right shoulder; contusionQuestionable
SALuke Kornet · left adductor; tightnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
NO·SA
−0.81
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
115.1
points / game
117.8
122.1
points allowed / game
112.8
11−36
season record
31−15
7−19
home record
16−5
4−17
away record
15−10
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
46.4
FG%
47.4
34.2
3P%
35.1
43.5
rebounds / game
46.2
24.8
assists / game
26.1
14.6
turnovers / game
13.6
58.2
points in paint / game
49.7

Rating Trend

NO · SA · 88 days
New Orleans PelicansSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 6−4
Dec 8, 2025at NOSA 135 − 132
Nov 8, 2025at SASA 126 − 119
Oct 24, 2025at NOSA 120 − 116
Mar 15, 2025at SASA 119 − 115
Feb 25, 2025at NONO 109 − 103
Feb 23, 2025at NONO 114 − 96
Dec 8, 2024at SASA 121 − 116
Apr 5, 2024at NOSA 111 − 109
Feb 2, 2024at SANO 114 − 113
Dec 17, 2023at SANO 146 − 110

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 23at MEM133 − 127W
Jan 21vs DET104 − 112L
Jan 18at HOU110 − 119L
Jan 16at IND119 − 127L
Jan 14vs BKN116 − 113W
Jan 13vs DEN116 − 122L
Jan 11at ORL118 − 128L
Jan 9at WSH128 − 107W
Jan 7at ATL100 − 117L
Jan 6vs LAL103 − 111L

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L
Jan 19vs UTAH123 − 110W
Jan 17vs MIN126 − 123W
Jan 15vs MIL119 − 101W
Jan 13at OKC98 − 119L
Jan 11at MIN103 − 104L
Jan 10at BOS100 − 95W
Jan 7vs LAL107 − 91W
Jan 6at MEM105 − 106L