bayesRatings

Spurs at Rockets

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 28 · 8:42 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final SA 111 – HOU 99
← NBA / Jan 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA26283027111
HOU3626241399
Team box
SA·HOU
44-82
field goals
39-99
6-26
3-pointers
8-23
17-24
free throws
13-18
46
rebounds
46
28
assists
23
15
turnovers
14
72
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA2928163
Amen ThompsonHOU362574
Kevin DurantHOU362426
Alperen SengunHOU3618107
De'Aaron FoxSA341858
Keldon JohnsonSA271775

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +16
SA +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 16 · SA 15lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 37%, HOU 63% · Updated Jan 28

Expected margin
HOU by 5.1
Expected score
HOU 115.4 – 110.3 SA
Expected total
225.7
SpursThe matchupRockets
+167Our fair odds−167
110.3Expected points115.4
+0.20Power rating+0.50
117.3Points / game116.7
112.6Allowed / game110.5
47.2FG%48.1
35.03P%37.4
46.2Rebounds / game49.0
31−16Season record28−16
6−4Last 106−4
David Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Stanley UmudeOut (3 each)Fred VanVleet · Steven Adams
Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair37.5%62.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+16737%————
HOUHouston Rockets−16763%————
SpreadHOU by 5.1
SASan Antonio Spurs+5.1our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.7
Over225.7our total————
Under225.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.1 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%
← SA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more54%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more39%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.7 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·HOU
Jan 25 vs NO
last game
Jan 26 vs MEM
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 28, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left quad; sorenessQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; sprainOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
SA·HOU
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.50
117.3
points / game
116.7
112.6
points allowed / game
110.5
31−16
season record
28−16
16−6
home record
16−3
15−10
away record
12−13
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.2
FG%
48.1
35.0
3P%
37.4
46.2
rebounds / game
49.0
26.0
assists / game
25.0
13.6
turnovers / game
15.6
49.3
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

SA · HOU · 91 days
San Antonio SpursHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 7−3
Jan 20at HOUHOU 111 − 106
Nov 7, 2025at SASA 121 − 110
Feb 26, 2025at HOUHOU 118 − 106
Nov 6, 2024at HOUHOU 127 − 100
Oct 28, 2024at SAHOU 106 − 101
Oct 26, 2024at SASA 109 − 106
Mar 12, 2024at SAHOU 103 − 101
Mar 5, 2024at HOUHOU 114 − 101
Dec 11, 2023at HOUHOU 93 − 82
Oct 27, 2023at SASA 126 − 122

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L
Jan 19vs UTAH123 − 110W
Jan 17vs MIN126 − 123W
Jan 15vs MIL119 − 101W
Jan 13at OKC98 − 119L
Jan 11at MIN103 − 104L
Jan 10at BOS100 − 95W
Jan 7vs LAL107 − 91W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 26vs MEM108 − 99W
Jan 23at DET111 − 104W
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 18vs NO119 − 110W
Jan 16vs MIN110 − 105W
Jan 15vs OKC91 − 111L
Jan 13vs CHI119 − 113W
Jan 11at SAC98 − 111L
Jan 9at POR105 − 111L