bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Jan 26 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final MEM 99 – HOU 108
← NBA / Jan 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM2430232299
HOU23282532108
Team box
MEM·HOU
39-105
field goals
41-92
7-37
3-pointers
11-37
14-17
free throws
15-20
52
rebounds
57
26
assists
29
13
turnovers
16
62
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU343396
Kevin DurantHOU373382
Santi AldamaMEM271772
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM321771
Tari EasonHOU271770
GG JacksonMEM271431

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +11
MEM +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 11 · MEM 10lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 33%, HOU 67% · Updated Jan 26

Expected margin
HOU by 6.6
Expected score
HOU 117.3 – 110.7 MEM
Expected total
228.0
GrizzliesThe matchupRockets
+207Our fair odds−207
110.7Expected points117.3
+0.01Power rating+0.51
115.5Points / game116.9
116.6Allowed / game110.8
45.7FG%48.2
34.93P%37.6
46.2Rebounds / game48.8
18−25Season record27−16
3−7Last 105−5
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jock Landale · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty JeromeOut (5 each)Fred VanVleet · Isaiah Crawford
JD Davison · Steven Adams
Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · HOU chance
Our model fair32.6%67.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+20733%————
HOUHouston Rockets−20767%————
SpreadHOU by 6.6
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+6.6our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−6.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.0
Over228.0our total————
Under228.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 6.6 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%
← MEM wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more58%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more42%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.548%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FSanti Aldamastarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·HOU
Jan 23 vs NO
last game
Jan 23 at DET
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 26, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJock Landale · personal reasonsOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUJD Davison · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; sprainOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUAaron Holiday · low back; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
MEM·HOU
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.51
115.5
points / game
116.9
116.6
points allowed / game
110.8
18−25
season record
27−16
10−13
home record
15−3
8−12
away record
12−13
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
45.7
FG%
48.2
34.9
3P%
37.6
46.2
rebounds / game
48.8
29.1
assists / game
24.9
15.5
turnovers / game
15.6
49.6
points in paint / game
52.9

Rating Trend

MEM · HOU · 89 days
Memphis GrizzliesHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 7−3
Nov 5, 2025at MEMHOU 124 − 109
Jan 30, 2025at MEMMEM 120 − 119
Jan 13, 2025at HOUHOU 120 − 118
Jan 9, 2025at MEMHOU 119 − 115
Oct 25, 2024at HOUHOU 128 − 108
Feb 14, 2024at MEMMEM 121 − 113
Dec 15, 2023at MEMHOU 103 − 96
Dec 13, 2023at HOUHOU 117 − 104
Nov 22, 2023at HOUHOU 111 − 91
Mar 24, 2023at MEMMEM 151 − 114

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jan 23vs NO127 − 133L
Jan 21vs ATL122 − 124L
Jan 18vs ORL126 − 109W
Jan 15at ORL111 − 118L
Jan 11vs BKN103 − 98W
Jan 9vs OKC116 − 117L
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 23at DET111 − 104W
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 18vs NO119 − 110W
Jan 16vs MIN110 − 105W
Jan 15vs OKC91 − 111L
Jan 13vs CHI119 − 113W
Jan 11at SAC98 − 111L
Jan 9at POR105 − 111L
Jan 7at POR102 − 103L