bayesRatings

Spurs at Hornets

NBA · Saturday, Jan 31 · 11:00 AM CT · Spectrum Center · Final SA 106 – CHA 111
← NBA / Jan 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA30172831106
CHA26352426111
Team box
SA·CHA
38-80
field goals
39-88
13-34
3-pointers
13-35
17-19
free throws
20-22
36
rebounds
51
26
assists
30
11
turnovers
12
44
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA352682
Collin SextonCHA182103
Dylan HarperSA232012
LaMelo BallCHA321688
Stephon CastleSA351659
Victor WembanyamaSA311681

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +20
SA +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 20 · SA 7lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 59%, CHA 41% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
SA by 2.5
Expected score
SA 114.8 – 112.3 CHA
Expected total
227.1
SpursThe matchupHornets
−146Our fair odds+146
114.8Expected points112.3
+0.20Power rating−0.40
117.1Points / game116.3
112.3Allowed / game114.8
47.4FG%46.6
34.73P%37.3
46.2Rebounds / game45.7
32−16Season record21−28
6−4Last 107−3
David Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Jeremy Sochan · Stanley UmudeOutAntonio Reeves · KJ Simpson
Liam McNeeley · Mason Plumlee
PJ Hall

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · CHA chance
Our model fair59.3%40.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−14659%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+14641%————
SpreadSA by 2.5
SASan Antonio Spurs−2.5our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.1
Over227.1our total————
Under227.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 2.5 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%
← SA wins byCHA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more47%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more32%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.1 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·CHA
Jan 28 at HOU
last game
Jan 29 at DAL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 31, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left quad; sorenessOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
SA·CHA
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.40
117.1
points / game
116.3
112.3
points allowed / game
114.8
32−16
season record
21−28
16−6
home record
9−13
16−10
away record
12−15
W1
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
7−3
47.4
FG%
46.6
34.7
3P%
37.3
46.2
rebounds / game
45.7
26.0
assists / game
26.8
13.6
turnovers / game
15.7
49.8
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

SA · CHA · 94 days
San Antonio SpursCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CHA 7−1
Mar 14, 2025at SACHA 145 − 134
Feb 7, 2025at CHACHA 117 − 116
Jan 19, 2024at CHACHA 124 − 120
Jan 12, 2024at SASA 135 − 99
Feb 15, 2023at CHACHA 120 − 110
Oct 19, 2022at SACHA 129 − 102
Mar 5, 2022at CHACHA 123 − 117
Dec 15, 2021at SACHA 131 − 115

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L
Jan 19vs UTAH123 − 110W
Jan 17vs MIN126 − 123W
Jan 15vs MIL119 − 101W
Jan 13at OKC98 − 119L
Jan 11at MIN103 − 104L
Jan 10at BOS100 − 95W

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Jan 29at DAL123 − 121W
Jan 28at MEM112 − 97W
Jan 26vs PHI130 − 93W
Jan 24vs WSH119 − 115W
Jan 22at ORL124 − 97W
Jan 21vs CLE87 − 94L
Jan 18at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 17at GS116 − 136L
Jan 15at LAL135 − 117W
Jan 12at LAC109 − 117L