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Hornets at Mavericks

NBA · Thursday, Jan 29 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final CHA 123 – DAL 121
← NBA / Jan 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA33263430123
DAL20383528121
Team box
CHA·DAL
43-91
field goals
48-103
20-41
3-pointers
11-33
17-18
free throws
14-16
45
rebounds
50
28
assists
26
10
turnovers
8
38
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL3849103
Kon KnueppelCHA363443
Brandon MillerCHA272362
LaMelo BallCHA312239
Miles BridgesCHA381788
Klay ThompsonDAL271631

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +15
CHA +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 4 · CHA 15lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 39%, DAL 61% · Updated Jan 29

Expected margin
DAL by 3.4
Expected score
DAL 115.2 – 111.8 CHA
Expected total
227.1
HornetsThe matchupMavericks
+155Our fair odds−155
111.8Expected points115.2
−0.40Power rating−0.18
116.2Points / game114.1
114.6Allowed / game116.6
46.5FG%47.3
37.13P%33.8
45.7Rebounds / game45.0
20−28Season record19−28
7−3Last 105−5
Antonio Reeves · Grant Williams
KJ Simpson · Mason Plumlee
PJ HallOut (5 each)Anthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving
Naji Marshall

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · DAL chance
Our model fair39.2%60.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+15539%————
DALDallas Mavericks−15561%————
SpreadDAL by 3.4
CHACharlotte Hornets+3.4our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.1
Over227.1our total————
Under227.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 3.4 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%
← CHA wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more50%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more35%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

227.1 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·DAL
Jan 28 at MEM
last game
Jan 28 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 29, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; injury managementOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHABrandon Miller · left ankle; impingementProbable
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALNaji Marshall · restOut
DALBrandon Williams · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALKlay Thompson · left knee; sorenessProbable
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
CHA·DAL
−0.40
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
116.2
points / game
114.1
114.6
points allowed / game
116.6
20−28
season record
19−28
9−13
home record
14−13
11−15
away record
5−15
W4
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
46.5
FG%
47.3
37.1
3P%
33.8
45.7
rebounds / game
45.0
26.7
assists / game
25.3
15.8
turnovers / game
15.3
48.7
points in paint / game
53.4

Rating Trend

CHA · DAL · 92 days
Charlotte HornetsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DAL 4−4
Feb 27, 2025at DALDAL 103 − 96
Jan 20, 2025at CHACHA 110 − 105
Apr 9, 2024at CHADAL 130 − 104
Nov 5, 2023at DALDAL 124 − 118
Mar 26, 2023at CHACHA 110 − 104
Mar 24, 2023at DALCHA 117 − 109
Mar 19, 2022at CHACHA 129 − 108
Dec 13, 2021at DALDAL 120 − 96

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jan 28at MEM112 − 97W
Jan 26vs PHI130 − 93W
Jan 24vs WSH119 − 115W
Jan 22at ORL124 − 97W
Jan 21vs CLE87 − 94L
Jan 18at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 17at GS116 − 136L
Jan 15at LAL135 − 117W
Jan 12at LAC109 − 117L
Jan 10at UTAH150 − 95W

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 28vs MIN105 − 118L
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W
Jan 17vs UTAH138 − 120W
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W
Jan 14vs DEN109 − 118L
Jan 12vs BKN113 − 105W
Jan 10at CHI107 − 125L
Jan 8at UTAH114 − 116L