bayesRatings

Hornets at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 28 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final CHA 112 – MEM 97
← NBA / Jan 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA36262822112
MEM2827202297
Team box
CHA·MEM
44-90
field goals
37-81
17-42
3-pointers
14-40
7-8
free throws
9-12
43
rebounds
29
25
assists
27
20
turnovers
13
52
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM332644
Brandon MillerCHA302613
Miles BridgesCHA282063
Moussa DiabateCHA3318192
Cedric CowardMEM271725
LaMelo BallCHA231614

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +22
CHA +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 3 · CHA 22lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 36%, MEM 64% · Updated Jan 28

Expected margin
MEM by 4.4
Expected score
MEM 117.1 – 112.7 CHA
Expected total
229.8
HornetsThe matchupGrizzlies
+174Our fair odds−174
112.7Expected points117.1
−0.40Power rating−0.06
116.3Points / game115.2
115.0Allowed / game116.4
46.5FG%45.5
37.03P%34.6
45.7Rebounds / game46.3
19−28Season record18−26
6−4Last 103−7
Antonio Reeves · KJ Simpson
Mason Plumlee · PJ HallOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Ty Jerome
Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · MEM chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+17436%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−17464%————
SpreadMEM by 4.4
CHACharlotte Hornets+4.4our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.8
Over229.8our total————
Under229.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 4.4 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%
← CHA wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more52%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more37%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.8 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·MEM
Jan 26 vs PHI
last game
Jan 26 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 28, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
CHA·MEM
−0.40
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
116.3
points / game
115.2
115.0
points allowed / game
116.4
19−28
season record
18−26
9−13
home record
10−13
10−15
away record
8−13
W3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
3−7
46.5
FG%
45.5
37.0
3P%
34.6
45.7
rebounds / game
46.3
26.8
assists / game
29.0
15.7
turnovers / game
15.4
48.6
points in paint / game
49.9

Rating Trend

CHA · MEM · 91 days
Charlotte HornetsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MEM 5−3
Apr 8, 2025at CHAMEM 124 − 100
Jan 22, 2025at MEMMEM 132 − 120
Mar 13, 2024at MEMCHA 110 − 98
Feb 10, 2024at CHACHA 115 − 106
Jan 4, 2023at CHAMEM 131 − 107
Nov 4, 2022at MEMMEM 130 − 99
Feb 12, 2022at CHAMEM 125 − 118
Nov 10, 2021at MEMCHA 118 − 108

CHA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jan 26vs PHI130 − 93W
Jan 24vs WSH119 − 115W
Jan 22at ORL124 − 97W
Jan 21vs CLE87 − 94L
Jan 18at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 17at GS116 − 136L
Jan 15at LAL135 − 117W
Jan 12at LAC109 − 117L
Jan 10at UTAH150 − 95W
Jan 8vs IND112 − 114L

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jan 26at HOU99 − 108L
Jan 23vs NO127 − 133L
Jan 21vs ATL122 − 124L
Jan 18vs ORL126 − 109W
Jan 15at ORL111 − 118L
Jan 11vs BKN103 − 98W
Jan 9vs OKC116 − 117L
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L