bayesRatings

76ers at Hornets

NBA · Monday, Jan 26 · 2:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final PHI 93 – CHA 130
← NBA / Jan 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI2222153493
CHA28414021130
Team box
PHI·CHA
35-89
field goals
47-83
9-30
3-pointers
17-41
14-19
free throws
19-27
33
rebounds
53
20
assists
34
17
turnovers
24
50
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA273082
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI251720
Jared McCainPHI231633
Quentin GrimesPHI261435
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA261393
Kon KnueppelCHA201286

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +50
PHI +50
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 50 · PHI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, CHA 47% · Updated Jan 26

Expected margin
PHI by 0.7
Expected score
PHI 113.8 – 113.1 CHA
Expected total
226.8
76ersThe matchupHornets
−112Our fair odds+112
113.8Expected points113.1
−0.17Power rating−0.53
116.6Points / game116.0
115.5Allowed / game115.5
45.8FG%46.3
35.13P%37.0
44.0Rebounds / game45.6
24−20Season record18−28
5−5Last 105−5
Charles Bassey · Joel Embiid
Johni Broome · MarJon Beauchamp
Paul GeorgeOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · KJ Simpson
Liam McNeeley · Mason Plumlee
PJ Hall

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CHA chance
Our model fair52.9%47.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−11253%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+11247%————
SpreadPHI by 0.7
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−0.7our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.8
Over226.8our total————
Under226.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 0.7 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%
← PHI wins byCHA wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more42%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more28%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CHA
Jan 24 vs NY
last game
Jan 24 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 26, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHICharles Bassey · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIJoel Embiid · left knee; injury managementOut
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHIPaul George · left knee; injury managementOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAKJ Simpson · left hip flexor; strainOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
PHI·CHA
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
116.6
points / game
116.0
115.5
points allowed / game
115.5
24−20
season record
18−28
12−13
home record
8−13
12−7
away record
10−15
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
45.8
FG%
46.3
35.1
3P%
37.0
44.0
rebounds / game
45.6
24.7
assists / game
26.6
14.1
turnovers / game
15.6
48.6
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

PHI · CHA · 89 days
Philadelphia 76ersCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 0−10
Oct 25, 2025at PHIPHI 125 − 121
Dec 20, 2024at PHIPHI 108 − 98
Dec 16, 2024at CHAPHI 121 − 108
Dec 3, 2024at CHAPHI 110 − 104
Nov 10, 2024at PHIPHI 107 − 105
Mar 16, 2024at PHIPHI 109 − 98
Mar 1, 2024at PHIPHI 121 − 114
Jan 20, 2024at CHAPHI 97 − 89
Dec 16, 2023at CHAPHI 135 − 82
Mar 17, 2023at CHAPHI 121 − 82

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 24vs NY109 − 112L
Jan 22vs HOU128 − 122W
Jan 20vs PHX110 − 116L
Jan 19vs IND113 − 104W
Jan 16vs CLE115 − 117L
Jan 14vs CLE107 − 133L
Jan 12at TOR115 − 102W
Jan 11at TOR115 − 116L
Jan 9at ORL103 − 91W
Jan 7vs WSH131 − 110W

CHA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 24vs WSH119 − 115W
Jan 22at ORL124 − 97W
Jan 21vs CLE87 − 94L
Jan 18at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 17at GS116 − 136L
Jan 15at LAL135 − 117W
Jan 12at LAC109 − 117L
Jan 10at UTAH150 − 95W
Jan 8vs IND112 − 114L
Jan 7vs TOR96 − 97L