bayesRatings

Cavaliers at Hornets

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 21 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final CLE 94 – CHA 87
← NBA / Jan 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE3323201894
CHA2012322387
Team box
CLE·CHA
34-87
field goals
33-98
8-40
3-pointers
8-47
18-24
free throws
13-18
60
rebounds
47
20
assists
20
21
turnovers
13
46
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE372436
Brandon MillerCHA342442
Kon KnueppelCHA3121112
Evan MobleyCLE3614140
Jaylon TysonCLE311474
Jarrett AllenCLE351390

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +27
CLE +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 0 · CLE 27lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 67%, CHA 33% · Updated Jan 21

Expected margin
CLE by 6.3
Expected score
CLE 119.5 – 113.2 CHA
Expected total
232.7
CavaliersThe matchupHornets
−200Our fair odds+200
119.5Expected points113.2
+0.41Power rating−0.53
119.6Points / game116.4
117.8Allowed / game116.4
47.2FG%46.2
35.83P%37.1
44.6Rebounds / game45.5
24−20Season record16−27
6−4Last 105−5
Chris Livingston · Darius Garland
Luke Travers · Max Strus
Sam MerrillOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · KJ Simpson
Liam McNeeley · Mason Plumlee
PJ Hall

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHA chance
Our model fair66.7%33.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−20067%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+20033%————
SpreadCLE by 6.3
CLECleveland Cavaliers−6.3our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+6.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.7
Over232.7our total————
Under232.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 6.3 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%
← CLE wins byCHA wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more58%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more42%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.7 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Charlotte Hornets
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHA
Jan 19 vs OKC
last game
Jan 18 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 21, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLEDarius Garland · right great toe; sprainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAKJ Simpson · left hip flexor; strainOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left achilles; tendinopathyProbable
CHATre Mann · illness; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
CLE·CHA
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
119.6
points / game
116.4
117.8
points allowed / game
116.4
24−20
season record
16−27
14−11
home record
7−12
10−9
away record
9−15
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.2
FG%
46.2
35.8
3P%
37.1
44.6
rebounds / game
45.5
28.6
assists / game
26.7
14.4
turnovers / game
15.5
50.0
points in paint / game
48.4

Rating Trend

CLE · CHA · 84 days
Cleveland CavaliersCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 4−6
Dec 22, 2025at CLECLE 139 − 132
Dec 14, 2025at CLECHA 119 − 111
Mar 7, 2025at CHACLE 118 − 117
Jan 5, 2025at CLECLE 115 − 105
Dec 7, 2024at CHACLE 116 − 102
Nov 17, 2024at CLECLE 128 − 114
Apr 14, 2024at CLECHA 120 − 110
Mar 27, 2024at CHACHA 118 − 111
Mar 25, 2024at CLECLE 115 − 92
Apr 9, 2023at CLECHA 106 − 95

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 19vs OKC104 − 136L
Jan 16at PHI117 − 115W
Jan 14at PHI133 − 107W
Jan 12vs UTAH112 − 123L
Jan 10vs MIN146 − 134W
Jan 8at MIN122 − 131L
Jan 6at IND120 − 116W
Jan 4vs DET110 − 114L
Jan 2vs DEN113 − 108W
Dec 31, 2025vs PHX129 − 113W

CHA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 18at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 17at GS116 − 136L
Jan 15at LAL135 − 117W
Jan 12at LAC109 − 117L
Jan 10at UTAH150 − 95W
Jan 8vs IND112 − 114L
Jan 7vs TOR96 − 97L
Jan 5at OKC124 − 97W
Jan 3at CHI112 − 99W
Jan 2at MIL121 − 122L