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Thunder at Lakers

NBA · Monday, Feb 9 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final OKC 119 – LAL 110
← NBA / Feb 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC31362626119
LAL30283319110
Team box
OKC·LAL
42-87
field goals
42-84
14-33
3-pointers
10-31
21-29
free throws
16-23
45
rebounds
37
23
assists
25
16
turnovers
15
48
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen WilliamsOKC242331
LeBron JamesLAL3622610
Marcus SmartLAL291933
Isaiah JoeOKC271932
Alex CarusoOKC241712
Austin ReavesLAL291627

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +14
OKC +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 8 · OKC 14lead changes: 22

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 70%, LAL 30% · Updated Feb 9

Expected margin
OKC by 8.4
Expected score
OKC 118.8 – 110.4 LAL
Expected total
229.2
ThunderThe matchupLakers
−229Our fair odds+229
118.8Expected points110.4
+1.19Power rating+0.13
119.9Points / game116.1
107.9Allowed / game115.8
48.9FG%50.0
36.13P%35.2
43.7Rebounds / game41.3
40−13Season record32−19
5−5Last 107−3
Ajay Mitchell · Nikola Topic
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Thomas SorberOutAdou Thiero · Luka Doncic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · LAL chance
Our model fair69.6%30.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−22970%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+22930%————
SpreadOKC by 8.4
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8.4our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.2
Over229.2our total————
Under229.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.4 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byLAL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more64%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more47%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·LAL
Feb 7 vs HOU
last game
Feb 7 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 9, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut
LALDalton Knecht · right hamstring; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
OKC·LAL
+1.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
119.9
points / game
116.1
107.9
points allowed / game
115.8
40−13
season record
32−19
22−6
home record
14−8
18−7
away record
18−11
L2
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
48.9
FG%
50.0
36.1
3P%
35.2
43.7
rebounds / game
41.3
25.6
assists / game
25.2
12.4
turnovers / game
15.1
50.9
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

OKC · LAL · 103 days
Oklahoma City ThunderLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 6−4
Nov 12, 2025at OKCOKC 121 − 92
Apr 8, 2025at OKCOKC 136 − 120
Apr 6, 2025at OKCLAL 126 − 99
Nov 29, 2024at LALOKC 101 − 93
Mar 4, 2024at LALLAL 116 − 104
Jan 15, 2024at LALLAL 112 − 105
Dec 23, 2023at OKCLAL 129 − 120
Nov 30, 2023at OKCOKC 133 − 110
Mar 24, 2023at LALLAL 116 − 111
Mar 1, 2023at OKCLAL 123 − 117

OKC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Feb 7vs HOU106 − 112L
Feb 4at SA106 − 116L
Feb 3vs ORL128 − 92W
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W
Jan 25vs TOR101 − 103L
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W

LAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Feb 7vs GS105 − 99W
Feb 5vs PHI119 − 115W
Feb 3at BKN125 − 109W
Feb 1at NY100 − 112L
Jan 30at WSH142 − 111W
Jan 28at CLE99 − 129L
Jan 26at CHI129 − 118W
Jan 24at DAL116 − 110W
Jan 22at LAC104 − 112L
Jan 20at DEN115 − 107W