bayesRatings

Warriors at Lakers

NBA · Saturday, Feb 7 · 7:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final GS 99 – LAL 105
← NBA / Feb 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS2121292899
LAL20213826105
Team box
GS·LAL
39-92
field goals
35-69
14-51
3-pointers
11-27
7-11
free throws
24-30
37
rebounds
41
25
assists
29
13
turnovers
23
48
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Moses MoodyGS392542
LeBron JamesLAL3520710
Rui HachimuraLAL281810
Austin ReavesLAL241658
Gui SantosGS261583
Marcus SmartLAL331534

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +12
GS +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 12 · GS 7lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 48%, LAL 52% · Updated Feb 7

Expected margin
GS by 0.2
Expected score
GS 114.5 – 114.3 LAL
Expected total
228.8
WarriorsThe matchupLakers
+108Our fair odds−108
114.5Expected points114.3
+0.27Power rating+0.13
115.9Points / game116.4
113.6Allowed / game116.2
46.1FG%50.0
36.33P%35.0
42.8Rebounds / game41.3
28−24Season record31−19
5−5Last 107−3
Jimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
LJ Cryer · Seth Curry
Stephen CurryOutAdou Thiero · Luka Doncic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · LAL chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+10848%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−10852%————
SpreadGS by 0.2
GSGolden State Warriors−0.2our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.8
Over228.8our total————
Under228.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.2 expected
Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%
← GS wins byLAL wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more40%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more27%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.8 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GPat Spencerstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CJaxson Hayesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·LAL
Feb 5 at PHX
last game
Feb 5 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 7, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; tearOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSBrandin Podziemski · general; illnessProbable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
GS·LAL
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
115.9
points / game
116.4
113.6
points allowed / game
116.2
28−24
season record
31−19
17−9
home record
13−8
11−15
away record
18−11
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
46.1
FG%
50.0
36.3
3P%
35.0
42.8
rebounds / game
41.3
28.8
assists / game
25.1
15.6
turnovers / game
14.9
43.0
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

GS · LAL · 101 days
Golden State WarriorsLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 5−5
Oct 21, 2025at LALGS 119 − 109
Apr 3, 2025at LALGS 123 − 116
Feb 6, 2025at LALLAL 120 − 112
Jan 25, 2025at GSLAL 118 − 108
Dec 25, 2024at GSLAL 115 − 113
Apr 9, 2024at LALGS 134 − 120
Mar 16, 2024at LALGS 128 − 121
Feb 22, 2024at GSGS 128 − 110
Jan 27, 2024at GSLAL 145 − 144
May 12, 2023at LALLAL 122 − 101post

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W
Jan 22at DAL115 − 123L
Jan 20vs TOR127 − 145L
Jan 19vs MIA135 − 112W
Jan 17vs CHA136 − 116W

LAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Feb 5vs PHI119 − 115W
Feb 3at BKN125 − 109W
Feb 1at NY100 − 112L
Jan 30at WSH142 − 111W
Jan 28at CLE99 − 129L
Jan 26at CHI129 − 118W
Jan 24at DAL116 − 110W
Jan 22at LAC104 − 112L
Jan 20at DEN115 − 107W
Jan 18vs TOR110 − 93W