bayesRatings

76ers at Warriors

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 3 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final PHI 113 – GS 94
← NBA / Feb 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI31272629113
GS3223162394
Team box
PHI·GS
42-93
field goals
37-78
13-38
3-pointers
19-48
16-21
free throws
1-2
56
rebounds
33
23
assists
27
13
turnovers
20
54
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
VJ EdgecombePHI402577
Trendon WatfordPHI271683
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI351563
Tyrese MaxeyPHI341443
Pat SpencerGS261343
Gui SantosGS261323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +22
PHI +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 5 · PHI 22lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 35%, GS 65% · Updated Feb 3

Expected margin
GS by 5.8
Expected score
GS 117.0 – 111.1 PHI
Expected total
228.1
76ersThe matchupWarriors
+187Our fair odds−187
111.1Expected points117.0
−0.14Power rating+0.27
116.9Points / game116.7
115.7Allowed / game114.0
46.1FG%46.1
35.73P%36.2
43.5Rebounds / game42.9
28−21Season record27−23
6−4Last 106−4
Joel Embiid · Paul GeorgeOutJimmy Butler III · Jonathan Kuminga
LJ Cryer · Seth Curry
Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · GS chance
Our model fair34.9%65.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+18735%————
GSGolden State Warriors−18765%————
SpreadGS by 5.8
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+5.8our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−5.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.1
Over228.1our total————
Under228.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 5.8 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%
← PHI wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more56%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more40%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.1 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CAl Horfordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·GS
Feb 2 at LAC
last game
Jan 30 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
3 days
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 3, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right ankle; injury management; right knee injury managementOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; tearOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSMoses Moody · left knee; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
PHI·GS
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
116.9
points / game
116.7
115.7
points allowed / game
114.0
28−21
season record
27−23
15−13
home record
17−8
13−8
away record
10−15
W4
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
46.1
FG%
46.1
35.7
3P%
36.2
43.5
rebounds / game
42.9
25.0
assists / game
28.9
13.7
turnovers / game
15.5
48.3
points in paint / game
43.6

Rating Trend

PHI · GS · 97 days
Philadelphia 76ersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 5−4
Dec 4, 2025at PHIPHI 99 − 98
Mar 1, 2025at PHIPHI 126 − 119
Jan 2, 2025at GSGS 139 − 105
Feb 7, 2024at PHIGS 127 − 104
Jan 30, 2024at GSGS 119 − 107
Mar 24, 2023at GSGS 120 − 112
Dec 16, 2022at PHIPHI 118 − 106
Dec 11, 2021at PHIPHI 102 − 93
Nov 24, 2021at GSGS 116 − 96

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Feb 2at LAC128 − 113W
Jan 31vs NO124 − 114W
Jan 29vs SAC113 − 111W
Jan 27vs MIL139 − 122W
Jan 26at CHA93 − 130L
Jan 24vs NY109 − 112L
Jan 22vs HOU128 − 122W
Jan 20vs PHX110 − 116L
Jan 19vs IND113 − 104W
Jan 16vs CLE115 − 117L

GS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W
Jan 22at DAL115 − 123L
Jan 20vs TOR127 − 145L
Jan 19vs MIA135 − 112W
Jan 17vs CHA136 − 116W
Jan 15vs NY126 − 113W
Jan 13vs POR119 − 97W