bayesRatings

Pelicans at 76ers

NBA · Saturday, Jan 31 · 6:30 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final NO 114 – PHI 124
← NBA / Jan 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO33212733114
PHI31362037124
Team box
NO·PHI
40-92
field goals
45-94
15-36
3-pointers
17-36
19-22
free throws
17-23
46
rebounds
52
23
assists
28
10
turnovers
10
46
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Joel EmbiidPHI3940114
Saddiq BeyNO323463
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI3019104
Trey Murphy IIINO381992
Tyrese MaxeyPHI351858
VJ EdgecombePHI371535

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +15
NO +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 15 · NO 6lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 33%, PHI 67% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
PHI by 6.2
Expected score
PHI 119.5 – 113.4 NO
Expected total
232.9
PelicansThe matchup76ers
+205Our fair odds−205
113.4Expected points119.5
−0.72Power rating−0.21
114.4Points / game116.5
120.9Allowed / game115.8
46.1FG%46.0
33.73P%35.3
44.0Rebounds / game43.4
13−37Season record26−21
4−6Last 105−5
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey AlexanderOutCharles Bassey · Johni Broome
MarJon Beauchamp · Paul George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · PHI chance
Our model fair32.8%67.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+20533%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−20567%————
SpreadPHI by 6.2
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.2our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.9
Over232.9our total————
Under232.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 6.2 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%
← NO wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more57%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more41%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.9 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.531%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·PHI
Jan 30 vs MEM
last game
Jan 29 vs SAC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 31, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
Philadelphia 76ers
PHICharles Bassey · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHIAndre Drummond · n/a; illnessQuestionable
PHIQuentin Grimes · right ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
NO·PHI
−0.72
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
114.4
points / game
116.5
120.9
points allowed / game
115.8
13−37
season record
26−21
8−19
home record
14−13
5−18
away record
12−8
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
46.1
FG%
46.0
33.7
3P%
35.3
44.0
rebounds / game
43.4
24.7
assists / game
24.9
14.4
turnovers / game
13.9
58.1
points in paint / game
48.3

Rating Trend

NO · PHI · 94 days
New Orleans PelicansPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHI 3−5
Mar 24, 2025at NONO 112 − 99
Jan 10, 2025at PHINO 123 − 115
Mar 8, 2024at PHINO 103 − 95
Nov 29, 2023at NONO 124 − 114
Jan 2, 2023at PHIPHI 120 − 111
Dec 30, 2022at NONO 127 − 116
Jan 25, 2022at PHIPHI 117 − 107
Oct 20, 2021at NOPHI 117 − 97

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 30vs MEM114 − 106W
Jan 27at OKC95 − 104L
Jan 25at SA104 − 95W
Jan 23at MEM133 − 127W
Jan 21vs DET104 − 112L
Jan 18at HOU110 − 119L
Jan 16at IND119 − 127L
Jan 14vs BKN116 − 113W
Jan 13vs DEN116 − 122L
Jan 11at ORL118 − 128L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 29vs SAC113 − 111W
Jan 27vs MIL139 − 122W
Jan 26at CHA93 − 130L
Jan 24vs NY109 − 112L
Jan 22vs HOU128 − 122W
Jan 20vs PHX110 − 116L
Jan 19vs IND113 − 104W
Jan 16vs CLE115 − 117L
Jan 14vs CLE107 − 133L
Jan 12at TOR115 − 102W