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Grizzlies at Pelicans

NBA · Friday, Jan 30 · 6:30 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final MEM 106 – NO 114
← NBA / Jan 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM32291530106
NO28303521114
Team box
MEM·NO
40-93
field goals
43-88
12-41
3-pointers
8-33
14-15
free throws
20-26
46
rebounds
42
26
assists
24
20
turnovers
16
48
points in paint
68
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Derik QueenNO342297
Saddiq BeyNO342282
Zion WilliamsonNO332174
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM341692
Herbert JonesNO301641
Cam SpencerMEM241613

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +17
MEM +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 17 · MEM 10lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 61%, NO 39% · Updated Jan 30

Expected margin
MEM by 4.7
Expected score
MEM 121.0 – 116.4 NO
Expected total
237.4
GrizzliesThe matchupPelicans
−154Our fair odds+154
121.0Expected points116.4
−0.06Power rating−0.72
114.8Points / game114.4
116.3Allowed / game121.2
45.5FG%46.0
34.63P%33.9
46.0Rebounds / game44.0
18−27Season record12−37
3−7Last 104−6
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Santi Aldama · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty JeromeOutDejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · NO chance
Our model fair60.6%39.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−15461%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+15439%————
SpreadMEM by 4.7
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−4.7our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.4
Over237.4our total————
Under237.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 4.7 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%
← MEM wins byNO wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more53%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more38%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.4 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·NO
Jan 28 vs CHA
last game
Jan 27 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 30, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
MEM·NO
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
114.8
points / game
114.4
116.3
points allowed / game
121.2
18−27
season record
12−37
10−14
home record
7−19
8−13
away record
5−18
L4
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
45.5
FG%
46.0
34.6
3P%
33.9
46.0
rebounds / game
44.0
29.0
assists / game
24.8
15.4
turnovers / game
14.4
49.6
points in paint / game
57.9

Rating Trend

MEM · NO · 93 days
Memphis GrizzliesNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 2−8
Jan 23at MEMNO 133 − 127
Nov 26, 2025at NOMEM 133 − 128
Oct 22, 2025at MEMMEM 128 − 122
Mar 9, 2025at NOMEM 107 − 104
Jan 24, 2025at MEMMEM 139 − 126
Dec 27, 2024at NOMEM 132 − 124
Nov 29, 2024at MEMMEM 120 − 109
Feb 12, 2024at MEMNO 96 − 87
Dec 26, 2023at NOMEM 116 − 115
Dec 19, 2023at NOMEM 115 − 113

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jan 28vs CHA97 − 112L
Jan 26at HOU99 − 108L
Jan 23vs NO127 − 133L
Jan 21vs ATL122 − 124L
Jan 18vs ORL126 − 109W
Jan 15at ORL111 − 118L
Jan 11vs BKN103 − 98W
Jan 9vs OKC116 − 117L
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 27at OKC95 − 104L
Jan 25at SA104 − 95W
Jan 23at MEM133 − 127W
Jan 21vs DET104 − 112L
Jan 18at HOU110 − 119L
Jan 16at IND119 − 127L
Jan 14vs BKN116 − 113W
Jan 13vs DEN116 − 122L
Jan 11at ORL118 − 128L
Jan 9at WSH128 − 107W