bayesRatings

Bucks at 76ers

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final MIL 122 – PHI 139
← NBA / Jan 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL34283327122
PHI42293533139
Team box
MIL·PHI
44-86
field goals
53-101
15-34
3-pointers
22-42
19-27
free throws
11-15
38
rebounds
46
29
assists
35
12
turnovers
7
52
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paul GeorgePHI333255
Myles TurnerMIL353143
Joel EmbiidPHI292995
Ryan RollinsMIL392484
Tyrese MaxeyPHI362239
Bobby PortisMIL3617128

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +22
MIL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 22 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 47%, PHI 53% · Updated Jan 27

Expected margin
PHI by 1.4
Expected score
PHI 114.4 – 113.0 MIL
Expected total
227.4
BucksThe matchup76ers
+115Our fair odds−115
113.0Expected points114.4
−0.13Power rating−0.21
111.9Points / game116.1
115.5Allowed / game115.8
48.2FG%45.7
39.33P%35.0
40.6Rebounds / game43.8
18−26Season record24−21
4−6Last 104−6
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Porter Jr. · Taurean PrinceOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+11547%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−11553%————
SpreadPHI by 1.4
MILMilwaukee Bucks+1.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.4
Over227.4our total————
Under227.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 1.4 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%
← MIL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more44%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more30%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.4 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FBobby Portisstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
CJoel Embiidstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·PHI
Jan 23 vs DEN
last game
Jan 26 at CHA
3 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 27, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right oblique muscle; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
Philadelphia 76ers
PHICharles Bassey · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
PHIJoel Embiid · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayQuestionable
PHIQuentin Grimes · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
PHIPaul George · left knee; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
MIL·PHI
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
111.9
points / game
116.1
115.5
points allowed / game
115.8
18−26
season record
24−21
9−12
home record
12−13
9−14
away record
12−8
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
48.2
FG%
45.7
39.3
3P%
35.0
40.6
rebounds / game
43.8
26.2
assists / game
24.6
14.7
turnovers / game
14.2
44.2
points in paint / game
48.7

Rating Trend

MIL · PHI · 90 days
Milwaukee BucksPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 2−8
Dec 5, 2025at MILPHI 116 − 101
Nov 20, 2025at MILPHI 123 − 114
Apr 3, 2025at PHIMIL 126 − 113
Feb 9, 2025at MILMIL 135 − 127
Jan 19, 2025at MILMIL 123 − 109
Oct 23, 2024at PHIMIL 124 − 109
Mar 14, 2024at MILMIL 114 − 105
Feb 25, 2024at PHIMIL 119 − 98
Oct 26, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 117
Apr 2, 2023at MILMIL 117 − 104

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 23vs DEN100 − 102L
Jan 21vs OKC102 − 122L
Jan 19at ATL112 − 110W
Jan 15at SA101 − 119L
Jan 13vs MIN106 − 139L
Jan 11at DEN104 − 108L
Jan 9at LAL105 − 101W
Jan 7at GS113 − 120L
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 26at CHA93 − 130L
Jan 24vs NY109 − 112L
Jan 22vs HOU128 − 122W
Jan 20vs PHX110 − 116L
Jan 19vs IND113 − 104W
Jan 16vs CLE115 − 117L
Jan 14vs CLE107 − 133L
Jan 12at TOR115 − 102W
Jan 11at TOR115 − 116L
Jan 9at ORL103 − 91W