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Pistons at Warriors

NBA · Friday, Jan 30 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final DET 131 – GS 124
← NBA / Jan 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET45323123131
GS37273129124
Team box
DET·GS
46-95
field goals
40-90
10-26
3-pointers
18-52
29-36
free throws
26-35
53
rebounds
42
31
assists
31
16
turnovers
18
62
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cade CunninghamDET3529411
Stephen CurryGS252312
Jalen DurenDET3021133
De'Anthony MeltonGS261853
Gui SantosGS251611
Draymond GreenGS331567

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +20
DET +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 4 · DET 20lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 49%, GS 51% · Updated Jan 30

Expected margin
GS by 0.6
Expected score
GS 112.8 – 112.2 DET
Expected total
225.0
PistonsThe matchupWarriors
+106Our fair odds−106
112.2Expected points112.8
+0.44Power rating+0.28
116.8Points / game116.5
110.1Allowed / game113.6
48.1FG%46.2
34.63P%36.2
45.7Rebounds / game42.9
34−12Season record27−22
7−3Last 106−4
Isaac Jones · Tolu Smith
Wendell Moore Jr.OutJimmy Butler III · Jonathan Kuminga
LJ Cryer · Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · GS chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+10649%————
GSGolden State Warriors−10651%————
SpreadGS by 0.6
DETDetroit Pistons+0.6our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.0
Over225.0our total————
Under225.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.6 expected
Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%
← DET wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more42%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more28%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.0 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.568%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.529%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CAl Horfordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·GS
Jan 29 at PHX
last game
Jan 28 at UTAH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 30, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETCaris LeVert · illness; illnessDoubtful
DETCade Cunningham · right hip; sorenessProbable
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; tearOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSGui Santos · right calf; contusionProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
DET·GS
+0.44
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
116.8
points / game
116.5
110.1
points allowed / game
113.6
34−12
season record
27−22
19−5
home record
17−7
15−7
away record
10−15
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
48.1
FG%
46.2
34.6
3P%
36.2
45.7
rebounds / game
42.9
26.6
assists / game
28.9
15.7
turnovers / game
15.5
56.8
points in paint / game
43.7

Rating Trend

DET · GS · 93 days
Detroit PistonsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · GS 6−2
Mar 8, 2025at GSGS 115 − 110
Jan 9, 2025at DETGS 107 − 104
Jan 5, 2024at GSGS 113 − 109
Nov 6, 2023at DETGS 120 − 109
Jan 4, 2023at GSDET 122 − 119
Oct 30, 2022at DETDET 128 − 114
Jan 18, 2022at GSGS 102 − 86
Nov 19, 2021at DETGS 105 − 102

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 29at PHX96 − 114L
Jan 27at DEN109 − 107W
Jan 25vs SAC139 − 116W
Jan 23vs HOU104 − 111L
Jan 21at NO112 − 104W
Jan 19vs BOS104 − 103W
Jan 17vs IND121 − 78W
Jan 15vs PHX108 − 105W
Jan 10vs LAC92 − 98L
Jan 7vs CHI108 − 93W

GS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W
Jan 22at DAL115 − 123L
Jan 20vs TOR127 − 145L
Jan 19vs MIA135 − 112W
Jan 17vs CHA136 − 116W
Jan 15vs NY126 − 113W
Jan 13vs POR119 − 97W
Jan 11vs ATL111 − 124L