bayesRatings

Lakers at Nets

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 3 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final LAL 125 – BKN 109
← NBA / Feb 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL45243125125
BKN23173435109
Team box
LAL·BKN
46-85
field goals
45-94
7-31
3-pointers
10-41
26-39
free throws
9-14
41
rebounds
48
25
assists
28
12
turnovers
20
66
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LeBron JamesLAL302537
Luka DoncicLAL292465
Michael Porter Jr.BKN3221103
Day'Ron SharpeBKN2619145
Jake LaRaviaLAL221850
Ziaire WilliamsBKN241723

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +39
LAL +39
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 3 · LAL 39lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 67%, BKN 33% · Updated Feb 3

Expected margin
LAL by 5.1
Expected score
LAL 113.0 – 107.9 BKN
Expected total
220.9
LakersThe matchupNets
−204Our fair odds+204
113.0Expected points107.9
+0.13Power rating−0.81
116.1Points / game107.1
116.3Allowed / game114.7
49.8FG%44.3
35.33P%34.3
41.3Rebounds / game40.3
29−19Season record13−35
5−5Last 102−8
Adou ThieroOutChaney Johnson · E.J. Liddell
Haywood Highsmith · Tyson Etienne

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · BKN chance
Our model fair67.1%32.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−20467%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+20433%————
SpreadLAL by 5.1
LALLos Angeles Lakers−5.1our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.9
Over220.9our total————
Under220.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 5.1 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%
← LAL wins byBKN wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more54%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more39%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.9 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.570%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.531%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GEgor Deminstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·BKN
Feb 1 at NY
last game
Feb 1 at DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
8th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 2, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainQuestionable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
LAL·BKN
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.81
116.1
points / game
107.1
116.3
points allowed / game
114.7
29−19
season record
13−35
12−8
home record
6−17
17−11
away record
7−18
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
2−8
49.8
FG%
44.3
35.3
3P%
34.3
41.3
rebounds / game
40.3
25.1
assists / game
25.2
14.9
turnovers / game
15.4
51.2
points in paint / game
42.2

Rating Trend

LAL · BKN · 97 days
Los Angeles LakersBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BKN 4−4
Mar 10, 2025at BKNBKN 111 − 108
Jan 17, 2025at LALLAL 102 − 101
Mar 31, 2024at BKNLAL 116 − 104
Jan 19, 2024at LALBKN 130 − 112
Jan 30, 2023at BKNBKN 121 − 104
Nov 13, 2022at LALLAL 116 − 103
Jan 25, 2022at BKNLAL 106 − 96
Dec 25, 2021at LALBKN 122 − 115

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 1at NY100 − 112L
Jan 30at WSH142 − 111W
Jan 28at CLE99 − 129L
Jan 26at CHI129 − 118W
Jan 24at DAL116 − 110W
Jan 22at LAC104 − 112L
Jan 20at DEN115 − 107W
Jan 18vs TOR110 − 93W
Jan 17at POR116 − 132L
Jan 15vs CHA117 − 135L

BKN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Feb 1at DET77 − 130L
Jan 30at UTAH109 − 99W
Jan 29at DEN103 − 107L
Jan 27at PHX102 − 106L
Jan 25at LAC89 − 126L
Jan 23vs BOS126 − 130L
Jan 21at NY66 − 120L
Jan 19vs PHX117 − 126L
Jan 18at CHI102 − 124L
Jan 16vs CHI112 − 109W