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Lakers at Cavaliers

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 28 · 6:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final LAL 99 – CLE 129
← NBA / Jan 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL2827222299
CLE24334230129
Team box
LAL·CLE
39-81
field goals
51-97
9-32
3-pointers
17-44
12-18
free throws
10-13
36
rebounds
46
21
assists
32
16
turnovers
10
48
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL302956
Donovan MitchellCLE292555
Jaylon TysonCLE292066
De'Andre HunterCLE211931
Jarrett AllenCLE241792
LeBron JamesLAL271135

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +34
LAL +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 34 · LAL 10lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 37%, CLE 63% · Updated Jan 28

Expected margin
CLE by 5.1
Expected score
CLE 119.2 – 114.2 LAL
Expected total
233.4
LakersThe matchupCavaliers
+167Our fair odds−167
114.2Expected points119.2
+0.16Power rating+0.46
116.3Points / game119.0
116.3Allowed / game116.5
49.6FG%47.3
35.43P%35.8
41.4Rebounds / game44.8
28−17Season record28−20
5−5Last 107−3
Adou Thiero · Austin ReavesOutDarius Garland · Evan Mobley
Luke Travers · Max Strus

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · CLE chance
Our model fair37.5%62.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+16737%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−16763%————
SpreadCLE by 5.1
LALLos Angeles Lakers+5.1our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.4
Over233.4our total————
Under233.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 5.1 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%
← LAL wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more54%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more39%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.4 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·CLE
Jan 26 at CHI
last game
Jan 26 vs ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 28, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDarius Garland · right great toe; sprainOut
CLEEvan Mobley · left calf; strainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLEDe'Andre Hunter · right knee; sorenessProbable
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
LAL·CLE
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
116.3
points / game
119.0
116.3
points allowed / game
116.5
28−17
season record
28−20
12−8
home record
16−11
16−9
away record
12−9
W2
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
49.6
FG%
47.3
35.4
3P%
35.8
41.4
rebounds / game
44.8
25.0
assists / game
28.2
14.9
turnovers / game
14.5
51.2
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

LAL · CLE · 91 days
Los Angeles LakersCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 4−4
Dec 31, 2024at LALCLE 122 − 110
Oct 30, 2024at CLECLE 134 − 110
Apr 6, 2024at LALLAL 116 − 97
Nov 25, 2023at CLELAL 121 − 115
Dec 6, 2022at CLECLE 116 − 102
Nov 6, 2022at LALCLE 114 − 100
Mar 21, 2022at CLELAL 131 − 120
Oct 29, 2021at LALLAL 113 − 101

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 26at CHI129 − 118W
Jan 24at DAL116 − 110W
Jan 22at LAC104 − 112L
Jan 20at DEN115 − 107W
Jan 18vs TOR110 − 93W
Jan 17at POR116 − 132L
Jan 15vs CHA117 − 135L
Jan 13vs ATL141 − 116W
Jan 12at SAC112 − 124L
Jan 9vs MIL101 − 105L

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jan 26vs ORL114 − 98W
Jan 24at ORL119 − 105W
Jan 23vs SAC123 − 118W
Jan 21at CHA94 − 87W
Jan 19vs OKC104 − 136L
Jan 16at PHI117 − 115W
Jan 14at PHI133 − 107W
Jan 12vs UTAH112 − 123L
Jan 10vs MIN146 − 134W
Jan 8at MIN122 − 131L