bayesRatings

Nets at Suns

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 27 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final BKN 102 – PHX 106

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN29222427102
PHX28322224106
Team box
BKN·PHX
38-75
field goals
43-77
13-32
3-pointers
5-20
13-19
free throws
15-20
35
rebounds
32
28
assists
22
22
turnovers
15
48
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Michael Porter Jr.BKN373653
Mark WilliamsPHX302761
Dillon BrooksPHX342633
Grayson AllenPHX341836
Egor DeminBKN311553
Cam ThomasBKN251133

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +12
BKN +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 12 · BKN 4lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 24%, PHX 76% · Updated Jan 27

Expected margin
PHX by 10.6
Expected score
PHX 114.2 – 103.7 BKN
Expected total
217.9
NetsThe matchupSuns
+313Our fair odds−313
103.7Expected points114.2
−0.81Power rating+0.13
107.9Points / game114.2
115.1Allowed / game111.8
44.3FG%46.0
34.33P%36.1
40.0Rebounds / game43.4
12−32Season record27−19
1−9Last 106−4
Chaney Johnson · Haywood Highsmith
Noah Clowney · Tyrese Martin
Tyson Etienne
OutDevin Booker · Jalen Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · PHX chance
Our model fair24.2%75.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+31324%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−31376%————
SpreadPHX by 10.6
BKNBrooklyn Nets+10.6our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−10.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 217.9
Over217.9our total————
Under217.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 10.6 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 52 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 51 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 50 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 50 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 51 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 52 points: <1%
← BKN wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more68%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more53%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

217.9 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 207.570%
Total over 217.550%
Total over 227.531%
Total from 208 to 22739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GDrake Powellstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
CNic Claxtonstarted
Phoenix Suns

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·PHX
Jan 25 at LAC
last game
Jan 25 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 27, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNNoah Clowney · back; sorenessOut
BKNTyrese Martin · left knee; sorenessOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
BKNNolan Traore · n/a; illnessProbable
Phoenix Suns
PHXDevin Booker · right ankle; sprainOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; injury managementOut
PHXCollin Gillespie · right hand; sprainQuestionable
PHXIsaiah Livers · n/a; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
BKN·PHX
−0.81
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
107.9
points / game
114.2
115.1
points allowed / game
111.8
12−32
season record
27−19
6−17
home record
14−6
6−15
away record
13−13
L5
streak
L2
1−9
last 10
6−4
44.3
FG%
46.0
34.3
3P%
36.1
40.0
rebounds / game
43.4
25.3
assists / game
25.0
15.2
turnovers / game
15.3
42.3
points in paint / game
44.8

Rating Trend

BKN · PHX · 90 days
Brooklyn NetsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHX 7−2
Jan 19at BKNPHX 126 − 117
Jan 22, 2025at BKNPHX 108 − 84
Nov 27, 2024at PHXBKN 127 − 117
Jan 31, 2024at BKNPHX 136 − 120
Dec 13, 2023at PHXBKN 116 − 112
Feb 7, 2023at BKNPHX 116 − 112
Jan 19, 2023at PHXPHX 117 − 112
Feb 1, 2022at PHXPHX 121 − 111
Nov 27, 2021at BKNPHX 113 − 107

BKN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Jan 25at LAC89 − 126L
Jan 23vs BOS126 − 130L
Jan 21at NY66 − 120L
Jan 19vs PHX117 − 126L
Jan 18at CHI102 − 124L
Jan 16vs CHI112 − 109W
Jan 14at NO113 − 116L
Jan 12at DAL105 − 113L
Jan 11at MEM98 − 103L
Jan 9vs LAC105 − 121L

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jan 25vs MIA102 − 111L
Jan 23at ATL103 − 110L
Jan 20at PHI116 − 110W
Jan 19at BKN126 − 117W
Jan 17at NY106 − 99W
Jan 15at DET105 − 108L
Jan 13at MIA121 − 127L
Jan 11vs WSH112 − 93W
Jan 9vs NY112 − 107W
Jan 7at MEM117 − 98W