bayesRatings

Warriors at Suns

NBA · Thursday, Feb 5 · 9:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final GS 101 – PHX 97
← NBA / Feb 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS25341725101
PHX2926271597
Team box
GS·PHX
33-76
field goals
38-82
20-55
3-pointers
16-43
15-20
free throws
5-6
45
rebounds
37
23
assists
22
15
turnovers
12
22
points in paint
32
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dillon BrooksPHX352461
Grayson AllenPHX332154
Pat SpencerGS322064
Gui SantosGS361847
De'Anthony MeltonGS251721
Gary Payton IIGS191581

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +14
GS +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 14 · GS 10lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 48%, PHX 52% · Updated Feb 5

Expected margin
PHX by 0.5
Expected score
PHX 112.9 – 112.4 GS
Expected total
225.3
WarriorsThe matchupSuns
+110Our fair odds−110
112.4Expected points112.9
+0.27Power rating+0.15
116.2Points / game114.1
114.0Allowed / game111.6
46.2FG%46.2
36.33P%36.5
42.7Rebounds / game43.1
27−24Season record31−20
5−5Last 107−3
Buddy Hield · Jimmy Butler III
Jonathan Kuminga · LJ Cryer
Seth CurryOutDevin Booker · Jalen Green
Nick Richards · Nigel Hayes-Davis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · PHX chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+11048%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−11052%————
SpreadPHX by 0.5
GSGolden State Warriors+0.5our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.3
Over225.3our total————
Under225.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 0.5 expected
Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%
← GS wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more42%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more28%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.3 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GPat Spencerstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·PHX
Feb 3 vs PHI
last game
Feb 3 at POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 5, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSBuddy Hield · not with teamOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; tearOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · not with teamOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSTrayce Jackson-Davis · not with teamOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXDevin Booker · right ankle; sprainOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; injury management; left hip contusionOut
PHXNick Richards · not with teamOut
PHXNigel Hayes-Davis · not with teamOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
GS·PHX
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
116.2
points / game
114.1
114.0
points allowed / game
111.6
27−24
season record
31−20
17−9
home record
17−7
10−15
away record
14−13
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
46.2
FG%
46.2
36.3
3P%
36.5
42.7
rebounds / game
43.1
28.9
assists / game
24.9
15.6
turnovers / game
15.1
43.4
points in paint / game
44.7

Rating Trend

GS · PHX · 99 days
Golden State WarriorsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 5−5
Dec 20, 2025at GSGS 119 − 116
Dec 18, 2025at PHXPHX 99 − 98
Nov 4, 2025at GSGS 118 − 107
Apr 8, 2025at PHXGS 133 − 95
Jan 31, 2025at GSPHX 130 − 105
Dec 28, 2024at GSGS 109 − 105
Nov 30, 2024at PHXPHX 113 − 105
Feb 10, 2024at GSGS 113 − 112
Dec 12, 2023at PHXPHX 119 − 116
Nov 22, 2023at PHXPHX 123 − 115

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W
Jan 22at DAL115 − 123L
Jan 20vs TOR127 − 145L
Jan 19vs MIA135 − 112W
Jan 17vs CHA136 − 116W
Jan 15vs NY126 − 113W

PHX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Feb 3at POR130 − 125W
Feb 1vs LAC93 − 117L
Jan 30vs CLE126 − 113W
Jan 29vs DET114 − 96W
Jan 27vs BKN106 − 102W
Jan 25vs MIA102 − 111L
Jan 23at ATL103 − 110L
Jan 20at PHI116 − 110W
Jan 19at BKN126 − 117W
Jan 17at NY106 − 99W