bayesRatings

Cavaliers at Suns

NBA · Friday, Jan 30 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final CLE 113 – PHX 126
← NBA / Jan 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE25223234113
PHX26264529126
Team box
CLE·PHX
45-97
field goals
45-85
15-48
3-pointers
23-48
8-11
free throws
13-18
43
rebounds
43
34
assists
31
22
turnovers
22
56
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dillon BrooksPHX242723
Jordan GoodwinPHX221751
De'Andre HunterCLE231731
Donovan MitchellCLE281636
Jaylon TysonCLE251643
Collin GillespiePHX241625

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +33
CLE +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 33 · CLE 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 53%, PHX 47% · Updated Jan 30

Expected margin
CLE by 1.8
Expected score
CLE 116.7 – 114.9 PHX
Expected total
231.6
CavaliersThe matchupSuns
−112Our fair odds+112
116.7Expected points114.9
+0.46Power rating+0.13
119.2Points / game114.0
116.1Allowed / game111.2
47.4FG%46.2
35.93P%35.9
44.9Rebounds / game43.2
29−20Season record29−19
8−2Last 106−4
Darius Garland · Evan Mobley
Luke Travers · Max Strus
Tristan EnarunaOutDevin Booker

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · PHX chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−11253%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+11247%————
SpreadCLE by 1.8
CLECleveland Cavaliers−1.8our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.6
Over231.6our total————
Under231.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 1.8 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%
← CLE wins byPHX wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more45%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more31%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

231.6 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·PHX
Jan 28 vs LAL
last game
Jan 29 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 30, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDarius Garland · right great toe; sprainOut
CLEEvan Mobley · left calf; strainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLETristan Enaruna · g league - two-wayOut
CLECraig Porter Jr. · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXDevin Booker · right ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
CLE·PHX
+0.46
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
119.2
points / game
114.0
116.1
points allowed / game
111.2
29−20
season record
29−19
17−11
home record
16−6
12−9
away record
13−13
W5
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
6−4
47.4
FG%
46.2
35.9
3P%
35.9
44.9
rebounds / game
43.2
28.2
assists / game
24.9
14.4
turnovers / game
15.3
50.2
points in paint / game
45.2

Rating Trend

CLE · PHX · 93 days
Cleveland CavaliersPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHX 5−4
Dec 31, 2025at CLECLE 129 − 113
Mar 21, 2025at PHXPHX 123 − 112
Jan 20, 2025at CLECLE 118 − 92
Apr 3, 2024at PHXPHX 122 − 101
Mar 11, 2024at CLEPHX 117 − 111
Jan 8, 2023at PHXCLE 112 − 98
Jan 4, 2023at CLECLE 90 − 88
Nov 24, 2021at CLEPHX 120 − 115
Oct 30, 2021at PHXPHX 101 − 92

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Jan 28vs LAL129 − 99W
Jan 26vs ORL114 − 98W
Jan 24at ORL119 − 105W
Jan 23vs SAC123 − 118W
Jan 21at CHA94 − 87W
Jan 19vs OKC104 − 136L
Jan 16at PHI117 − 115W
Jan 14at PHI133 − 107W
Jan 12vs UTAH112 − 123L
Jan 10vs MIN146 − 134W

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 29vs DET114 − 96W
Jan 27vs BKN106 − 102W
Jan 25vs MIA102 − 111L
Jan 23at ATL103 − 110L
Jan 20at PHI116 − 110W
Jan 19at BKN126 − 117W
Jan 17at NY106 − 99W
Jan 15at DET105 − 108L
Jan 13at MIA121 − 127L
Jan 11vs WSH112 − 93W