bayesRatings

Rockets at Thunder

NBA · Saturday, Feb 7 · 2:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final HOU 112 – OKC 106
← NBA / Feb 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU28183432112
OKC28242232106
Team box
HOU·OKC
38-83
field goals
37-82
15-43
3-pointers
14-36
21-28
free throws
18-28
41
rebounds
42
25
assists
25
15
turnovers
17
36
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tari EasonHOU342681
Cason WallaceOKC342344
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU4322100
Isaiah JoeOKC292132
Kevin DurantHOU402014
Alperen SengunHOU37171211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +15
HOU +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 15 · HOU 9lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 29%, OKC 71% · Updated Feb 7

Expected margin
OKC by 8.7
Expected score
OKC 115.3 – 106.6 HOU
Expected total
221.9
RocketsThe matchupThunder
+250Our fair odds−250
106.6Expected points115.3
+0.49Power rating+1.19
115.2Points / game120.2
110.1Allowed / game107.9
47.5FG%49.0
37.23P%36.0
49.0Rebounds / game43.7
31−19Season record40−12
6−4Last 105−5
Fred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen NewtonOutAjay Mitchell · Jalen Williams
Nikola Topic · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · OKC chance
Our model fair28.6%71.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+25029%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−25071%————
SpreadOKC by 8.7
HOUHouston Rockets+8.7our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.9
Over221.9our total————
Under221.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.7 expected
Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%
← HOU wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more63%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more48%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.9 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.570%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.531%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·OKC
Feb 5 vs CHA
last game
Feb 4 at SA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 7, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · left wrist; contusionOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
HOU·OKC
+0.49
rating (0 = average)
+1.19
115.2
points / game
120.2
110.1
points allowed / game
107.9
31−19
season record
40−12
17−6
home record
22−5
14−13
away record
18−7
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.5
FG%
49.0
37.2
3P%
36.0
49.0
rebounds / game
43.7
24.8
assists / game
25.6
15.3
turnovers / game
12.3
52.6
points in paint / game
51.0

Rating Trend

HOU · OKC · 101 days
Houston RocketsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 7−3
Jan 15at HOUOKC 111 − 91
Oct 21, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 124
Apr 4, 2025at HOUHOU 125 − 111
Mar 3, 2025at OKCOKC 137 − 128
Dec 14, 2024at OKCOKC 111 − 96
Dec 1, 2024at HOUHOU 119 − 116
Nov 8, 2024at OKCOKC 126 − 107
Mar 27, 2024at OKCHOU 132 − 126
Feb 27, 2024at OKCOKC 112 − 95
Feb 25, 2024at HOUOKC 123 − 110

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Feb 5vs CHA99 − 109L
Feb 4vs BOS93 − 114L
Feb 2at IND118 − 114W
Jan 31vs DAL111 − 107W
Jan 29at ATL104 − 86W
Jan 28vs SA99 − 111L
Jan 26vs MEM108 − 99W
Jan 23at DET111 − 104W
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W

OKC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 4at SA106 − 116L
Feb 3vs ORL128 − 92W
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W
Jan 25vs TOR101 − 103L
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W
Jan 19at CLE136 − 104W
Jan 17at MIA120 − 122L