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Mavericks at Rockets

NBA · Saturday, Jan 31 · 7:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final DAL 107 – HOU 111
← NBA / Jan 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL28233125107
HOU31282824111
Team box
DAL·HOU
41-92
field goals
45-108
10-23
3-pointers
10-26
15-26
free throws
11-15
48
rebounds
53
19
assists
33
11
turnovers
6
58
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL3934125
Amen ThompsonHOU412189
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU331982
Tari EasonHOU311773
Daniel GaffordDAL2816111
Alperen SengunHOU3514147

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +13
DAL +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 13 · DAL 2lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 29%, HOU 71% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
HOU by 8.2
Expected score
HOU 116.8 – 108.7 DAL
Expected total
225.5
MavericksThe matchupRockets
+241Our fair odds−241
108.7Expected points116.8
−0.18Power rating+0.50
114.2Points / game116.1
116.7Allowed / game110.0
47.3FG%47.8
33.83P%37.4
45.1Rebounds / game49.2
19−29Season record29−17
5−5Last 107−3
Anthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOutFred VanVleet · Steven Adams
Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair29.3%70.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+24129%————
HOUHouston Rockets−24171%————
SpreadHOU by 8.2
DALDallas Mavericks+8.2our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−8.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.5
Over225.5our total————
Under225.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 8.2 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%
← DAL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more62%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more46%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·HOU
Jan 29 vs CHA
last game
Jan 29 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 31, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayProbable
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayProbable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
DAL·HOU
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.50
114.2
points / game
116.1
116.7
points allowed / game
110.0
19−29
season record
29−17
14−14
home record
16−4
5−15
away record
13−13
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
47.3
FG%
47.8
33.8
3P%
37.4
45.1
rebounds / game
49.2
25.4
assists / game
24.9
15.1
turnovers / game
15.5
53.6
points in paint / game
52.7

Rating Trend

DAL · HOU · 94 days
Dallas MavericksHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Jan 3at DALDAL 110 − 104
Dec 6, 2025at DALDAL 122 − 109
Nov 3, 2025at HOUHOU 110 − 102
Mar 14, 2025at HOUHOU 133 − 96
Feb 8, 2025at DALDAL 116 − 105
Jan 1, 2025at HOUHOU 110 − 99
Oct 31, 2024at DALHOU 108 − 102
Apr 7, 2024at DALDAL 147 − 136
Mar 31, 2024at HOUDAL 125 − 107
Dec 22, 2023at HOUHOU 122 − 96

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jan 29vs CHA121 − 123L
Jan 28vs MIN105 − 118L
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W
Jan 17vs UTAH138 − 120W
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W
Jan 14vs DEN109 − 118L
Jan 12vs BKN113 − 105W
Jan 10at CHI107 − 125L

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 29at ATL104 − 86W
Jan 28vs SA99 − 111L
Jan 26vs MEM108 − 99W
Jan 23at DET111 − 104W
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 18vs NO119 − 110W
Jan 16vs MIN110 − 105W
Jan 15vs OKC91 − 111L
Jan 13vs CHI119 − 113W