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Rockets at Hawks

NBA · Thursday, Jan 29 · 7:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final HOU 104 – ATL 86
← NBA / Jan 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU23203526104
ATL2319242086
Team box
HOU·ATL
39-92
field goals
34-93
12-31
3-pointers
12-39
14-20
free throws
6-7
59
rebounds
46
23
assists
19
12
turnovers
12
44
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU343154
CJ McCollumATL312352
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL352051
Corey KispertATL311722
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU321483
Reed SheppardHOU261344

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +22
HOU +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 7 · HOU 22lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 59%, ATL 41% · Updated Jan 29

Expected margin
HOU by 3.9
Expected score
HOU 118.8 – 114.8 ATL
Expected total
233.6
RocketsThe matchupHawks
−142Our fair odds+142
118.8Expected points114.8
+0.50Power rating−0.08
116.3Points / game117.7
110.5Allowed / game118.4
47.9FG%47.6
37.33P%37.0
48.9Rebounds / game42.1
28−17Season record24−25
6−4Last 106−4
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Steven Adams · Tari Eason
Tristen NewtonOut (5 each)Caleb Houstan · Jalen Johnson
Kristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · ATL chance
Our model fair58.7%41.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−14259%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+14241%————
SpreadHOU by 3.9
HOUHouston Rockets−3.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.6
Over233.6our total————
Under233.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 3.9 expected
Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%
← HOU wins byATL wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more51%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more36%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.6 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GVit Krejcistarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FCorey Kispertstarted
CChristian Kolokostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·ATL
Jan 28 vs SA
last game
Jan 28 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 29, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; injury managementOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; left ankle surgeryOut
HOUTari Eason · left lower leg; injury managementOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJalen Johnson · left calf; tightnessOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLOnyeka Okongwu · dental; fractureOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; bone contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
HOU·ATL
+0.50
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
116.3
points / game
117.7
110.5
points allowed / game
118.4
28−17
season record
24−25
16−4
home record
9−13
12−13
away record
15−12
L1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.9
FG%
47.6
37.3
3P%
37.0
48.9
rebounds / game
42.1
24.9
assists / game
31.0
15.6
turnovers / game
14.7
52.8
points in paint / game
51.4

Rating Trend

HOU · ATL · 92 days
Houston RocketsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ATL 4−4
Mar 25, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 114
Jan 28, 2025at ATLHOU 100 − 96
Feb 10, 2024at ATLATL 122 − 113
Dec 20, 2023at HOUATL 134 − 127
Nov 25, 2022at HOUHOU 128 − 122
Oct 19, 2022at ATLATL 117 − 107
Apr 10, 2022at HOUATL 130 − 114
Dec 13, 2021at ATLHOU 132 − 126

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 28vs SA99 − 111L
Jan 26vs MEM108 − 99W
Jan 23at DET111 − 104W
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 18vs NO119 − 110W
Jan 16vs MIN110 − 105W
Jan 15vs OKC91 − 111L
Jan 13vs CHI119 − 113W
Jan 11at SAC98 − 111L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jan 28at BOS117 − 106W
Jan 26vs IND132 − 116W
Jan 23vs PHX110 − 103W
Jan 21at MEM124 − 122W
Jan 19vs MIL110 − 112L
Jan 17vs BOS106 − 132L
Jan 15at POR101 − 117L
Jan 13at LAL116 − 141L
Jan 11at GS124 − 111W
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W