bayesRatings

Pacers at Hawks

NBA · Monday, Jan 26 · 12:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final IND 116 – ATL 132
← NBA / Jan 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND38262824116
ATL34263537132
Team box
IND·ATL
43-93
field goals
49-98
10-35
3-pointers
18-43
20-25
free throws
16-17
42
rebounds
46
31
assists
35
17
turnovers
14
54
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND352694
CJ McCollumATL282387
Dyson DanielsATL352259
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL342133
Aaron NesmithIND291824
T.J. McConnellIND181613

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +16
IND +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 16 · IND 15lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 42%, ATL 58% · Updated Jan 26

Expected margin
ATL by 2.6
Expected score
ATL 119.8 – 117.2 IND
Expected total
237.1
PacersThe matchupHawks
+140Our fair odds−140
117.2Expected points119.8
−0.25Power rating−0.15
110.1Points / game117.4
118.2Allowed / game118.7
44.2FG%47.5
34.43P%36.8
43.0Rebounds / game42.1
11−35Season record22−25
5−5Last 105−5
Obi Toppin · Taelon Peter
Tyrese HaliburtonOutAsa Newell · Caleb Houstan
Kristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · ATL chance
Our model fair41.7%58.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+14042%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−14058%————
SpreadATL by 2.6
INDIndiana Pacers+2.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.1
Over237.1our total————
Under237.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 2.6 expected
Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%
← IND wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more47%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more33%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.1 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FCorey Kispertstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·ATL
Jan 23 at OKC
last game
Jan 23 vs PHX
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 26, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; bone contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
IND·ATL
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
110.1
points / game
117.4
118.2
points allowed / game
118.7
11−35
season record
22−25
8−16
home record
8−13
3−19
away record
14−12
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
44.2
FG%
47.5
34.4
3P%
36.8
43.0
rebounds / game
42.1
25.3
assists / game
31.0
14.3
turnovers / game
14.8
44.7
points in paint / game
51.5

Rating Trend

IND · ATL · 89 days
Indiana PacersAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Oct 31, 2025at INDATL 128 − 108
Mar 8, 2025at ATLATL 120 − 118
Mar 6, 2025at ATLATL 124 − 118
Feb 1, 2025at INDIND 132 − 127
Apr 14, 2024at INDIND 157 − 115
Jan 12, 2024at ATLIND 126 − 108
Jan 5, 2024at INDIND 150 − 116
Nov 21, 2023at ATLIND 157 − 152
Mar 25, 2023at ATLATL 143 − 130
Jan 13, 2023at INDATL 113 − 111

IND · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 23at OKC117 − 114W
Jan 21at BOS104 − 119L
Jan 19at PHI104 − 113L
Jan 17at DET78 − 121L
Jan 16vs NO127 − 119W
Jan 14vs TOR101 − 115L
Jan 12vs BOS98 − 96W
Jan 10vs MIA123 − 99W
Jan 8at CHA114 − 112W
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 23vs PHX110 − 103W
Jan 21at MEM124 − 122W
Jan 19vs MIL110 − 112L
Jan 17vs BOS106 − 132L
Jan 15at POR101 − 117L
Jan 13at LAL116 − 141L
Jan 11at GS124 − 111W
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L