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Hawks at Celtics

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 28 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final ATL 117 – BOS 106
← NBA / Jan 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL38222730117
BOS18283030106
Team box
ATL·BOS
45-93
field goals
42-89
18-42
3-pointers
9-34
9-13
free throws
13-16
38
rebounds
51
29
assists
21
9
turnovers
16
44
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS292173
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL312113
Jalen JohnsonATL3319147
Onyeka OkongwuATL291763
Dyson DanielsATL351569
CJ McCollumATL291333

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +23
ATL +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 3 · ATL 23lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 26%, BOS 74% · Updated Jan 28

Expected margin
BOS by 9.8
Expected score
BOS 120.0 – 110.2 ATL
Expected total
230.2
HawksThe matchupCeltics
+279Our fair odds−279
110.2Expected points120.0
−0.08Power rating+0.74
117.8Points / game116.6
118.7Allowed / game109.9
47.5FG%47.1
36.93P%37.0
42.2Rebounds / game44.8
23−25Season record29−17
6−4Last 106−4
Asa Newell · Caleb Houstan
Kristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola DjurisicOutJayson Tatum · Neemias Queta

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair26.4%73.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+27926%————
BOSBoston Celtics−27974%————
SpreadBOS by 9.8
ATLAtlanta Hawks+9.8our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−9.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.2
Over230.2our total————
Under230.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 9.8 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 52 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 51 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 50 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%
← ATL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more66%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more51%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.2 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FCorey Kispertstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
FAmari Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BOS
Jan 26 vs IND
last game
Jan 26 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 28, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; bone contusionOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSNeemias Queta · illness; non-covidOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
ATL·BOS
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.74
117.8
points / game
116.6
118.7
points allowed / game
109.9
23−25
season record
29−17
9−13
home record
14−7
14−12
away record
15−10
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.5
FG%
47.1
36.9
3P%
37.0
42.2
rebounds / game
44.8
31.1
assists / game
24.0
14.8
turnovers / game
12.0
51.6
points in paint / game
44.3

Rating Trend

ATL · BOS · 91 days
Atlanta HawksBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Jan 17at ATLBOS 132 − 106
Jan 18, 2025at BOSATL 119 − 115
Nov 12, 2024at BOSATL 117 − 116
Nov 4, 2024at ATLBOS 123 − 93
Mar 28, 2024at ATLATL 123 − 122
Mar 25, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 118
Feb 7, 2024at BOSBOS 125 − 117
Nov 26, 2023at BOSBOS 113 − 103
Apr 27, 2023at ATLBOS 128 − 120post
Apr 25, 2023at BOSATL 119 − 117post

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jan 26vs IND132 − 116W
Jan 23vs PHX110 − 103W
Jan 21at MEM124 − 122W
Jan 19vs MIL110 − 112L
Jan 17vs BOS106 − 132L
Jan 15at POR101 − 117L
Jan 13at LAL116 − 141L
Jan 11at GS124 − 111W
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 26vs POR102 − 94W
Jan 24at CHI111 − 114L
Jan 23at BKN130 − 126W
Jan 21vs IND119 − 104W
Jan 19at DET103 − 104L
Jan 17at ATL132 − 106W
Jan 15at MIA119 − 114W
Jan 12at IND96 − 98L
Jan 10vs SA95 − 100L
Jan 9vs TOR125 − 117W