bayesRatings

Hornets at Rockets

NBA · Thursday, Feb 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final CHA 109 – HOU 99
← NBA / Feb 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA29323018109
HOU2623262499
Team box
CHA·HOU
36-87
field goals
38-83
17-43
3-pointers
8-23
20-22
free throws
15-20
46
rebounds
40
21
assists
24
22
turnovers
18
34
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU313131
Kon KnueppelCHA322442
LaMelo BallCHA292064
Miles BridgesCHA321864
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU331772
Josh GreenCHA231412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +22
CHA +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 1 · CHA 22lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 27%, HOU 73% · Updated Feb 5

Expected margin
HOU by 9.2
Expected score
HOU 114.8 – 105.7 CHA
Expected total
220.5
HornetsThe matchupRockets
+274Our fair odds−274
105.7Expected points114.8
−0.31Power rating+0.49
116.0Points / game115.5
114.2Allowed / game110.1
46.4FG%47.5
37.13P%37.3
46.0Rebounds / game49.1
23−28Season record31−18
8−2Last 107−3
Antonio Reeves · KJ Simpson
Liam McNeeley · PJ HallOut (4 each)Fred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair26.7%73.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+27427%————
HOUHouston Rockets−27473%————
SpreadHOU by 9.2
CHACharlotte Hornets+9.2our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−9.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.5
Over220.5our total————
Under220.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 9.2 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 51 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%
← CHA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more64%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more49%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

220.5 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·HOU
Feb 2 vs NO
last game
Feb 4 vs BOS
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 5, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAKJ Simpson · left hip flexor; strainOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · n/a; illnessQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · left wrist; contusionOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTari Eason · left lower leg; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
CHA·HOU
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
116.0
points / game
115.5
114.2
points allowed / game
110.1
23−28
season record
31−18
11−13
home record
17−5
12−15
away record
14−13
W7
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
7−3
46.4
FG%
47.5
37.1
3P%
37.3
46.0
rebounds / game
49.1
26.6
assists / game
24.8
15.7
turnovers / game
15.2
48.1
points in paint / game
52.7

Rating Trend

CHA · HOU · 99 days
Charlotte HornetsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · HOU 5−3
Dec 23, 2024at CHAHOU 114 − 101
Oct 23, 2024at HOUCHA 110 − 105
Jan 26, 2024at CHAHOU 138 − 104
Nov 1, 2023at HOUHOU 128 − 119
Apr 7, 2023at CHAHOU 112 − 109
Jan 18, 2023at HOUCHA 122 − 117
Dec 27, 2021at CHACHA 123 − 99
Nov 27, 2021at HOUHOU 146 − 143

CHA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Feb 2vs NO102 − 95W
Jan 31vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 29at DAL123 − 121W
Jan 28at MEM112 − 97W
Jan 26vs PHI130 − 93W
Jan 24vs WSH119 − 115W
Jan 22at ORL124 − 97W
Jan 21vs CLE87 − 94L
Jan 18at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 17at GS116 − 136L

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Feb 4vs BOS93 − 114L
Feb 2at IND118 − 114W
Jan 31vs DAL111 − 107W
Jan 29at ATL104 − 86W
Jan 28vs SA99 − 111L
Jan 26vs MEM108 − 99W
Jan 23at DET111 − 104W
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 18vs NO119 − 110W