bayesRatings

Rockets at Pacers

NBA · Monday, Feb 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final HOU 118 – IND 114
← NBA / Feb 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU24392431118
IND28283127114
Team box
HOU·IND
40-87
field goals
43-87
7-22
3-pointers
12-26
31-37
free throws
16-21
56
rebounds
33
21
assists
33
16
turnovers
10
58
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU3539165
Pascal SiakamIND332745
Bennedict MathurinIND342545
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU351941
Aaron NesmithIND331762
Amen ThompsonHOU3916117

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +12
HOU +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 6 · HOU 12lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 62%, IND 38% · Updated Feb 2

Expected margin
HOU by 5.0
Expected score
HOU 115.9 – 110.9 IND
Expected total
226.8
RocketsThe matchupPacers
−165Our fair odds+165
115.9Expected points110.9
+0.50Power rating−0.23
116.0Points / game110.7
109.9Allowed / game118.4
47.7FG%44.5
37.43P%34.7
49.2Rebounds / game43.1
30−17Season record13−36
7−3Last 105−5
Fred VanVleet · Kevin Durant
Steven Adams · Tristen NewtonOutObi Toppin · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · IND chance
Our model fair62.2%37.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−16562%————
INDIndiana Pacers+16538%————
SpreadHOU by 5.0
HOUHouston Rockets−5our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+5our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.8
Over226.8our total————
Under226.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.0 expected
Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%
← HOU wins byIND wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more54%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more38%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·IND
Jan 31 vs DAL
last game
Jan 31 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 2, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUKevin Durant · left ankle; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Indiana Pacers
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
HOU·IND
+0.50
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
116.0
points / game
110.7
109.9
points allowed / game
118.4
30−17
season record
13−36
17−4
home record
10−16
13−13
away record
3−20
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
47.7
FG%
44.5
37.4
3P%
34.7
49.2
rebounds / game
43.1
25.1
assists / game
25.6
15.3
turnovers / game
14.4
52.9
points in paint / game
45.0

Rating Trend

HOU · IND · 96 days
Houston RocketsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 7−2
Dec 29, 2025at HOUHOU 126 − 119
Mar 4, 2025at INDIND 115 − 102
Nov 20, 2024at HOUHOU 130 − 113
Feb 6, 2024at INDIND 132 − 129
Dec 26, 2023at HOUIND 123 − 117
Mar 9, 2023at INDIND 134 − 125
Nov 18, 2022at HOUIND 99 − 91
Mar 18, 2022at HOUIND 121 − 118
Dec 23, 2021at INDIND 118 − 106

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 31vs DAL111 − 107W
Jan 29at ATL104 − 86W
Jan 28vs SA99 − 111L
Jan 26vs MEM108 − 99W
Jan 23at DET111 − 104W
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 18vs NO119 − 110W
Jan 16vs MIN110 − 105W
Jan 15vs OKC91 − 111L

IND · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 31vs ATL129 − 124W
Jan 28vs CHI113 − 110W
Jan 26at ATL116 − 132L
Jan 23at OKC117 − 114W
Jan 21at BOS104 − 119L
Jan 19at PHI104 − 113L
Jan 17at DET78 − 121L
Jan 16vs NO127 − 119W
Jan 14vs TOR101 − 115L
Jan 12vs BOS98 − 96W