bayesRatings

Celtics at Rockets

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 4 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final BOS 114 – HOU 93
← NBA / Feb 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS18313629114
HOU1725213093
Team box
BOS·HOU
39-90
field goals
34-82
19-51
3-pointers
11-30
17-20
free throws
14-22
57
rebounds
38
26
assists
16
15
turnovers
10
36
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Derrick WhiteBOS372818
Payton PritchardBOS332737
Luka GarzaBOS341962
Baylor ScheiermanBOS2315104
Kevin DurantHOU331551
Alperen SengunHOU311393

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +29
BOS +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 6 · BOS 29lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 51%, HOU 49% · Updated Feb 4

Expected margin
BOS by 0.1
Expected score
BOS 109.4 – 109.3 HOU
Expected total
218.7
CelticsThe matchupRockets
−103Our fair odds+103
109.4Expected points109.3
+0.74Power rating+0.49
116.0Points / game116.0
108.9Allowed / game110.0
47.1FG%47.6
36.73P%37.3
45.1Rebounds / game49.4
32−18Season record31−17
7−3Last 108−2
Amari Williams · Anfernee Simons
Chris Boucher · Jayson Tatum
Sam HauserOutDorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · HOU chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−10351%————
HOUHouston Rockets+10349%————
SpreadBOS by 0.1
BOSBoston Celtics−0.1our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 218.7
Over218.7our total————
Under218.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 0.1 expected
Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%
← BOS wins byHOU wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more40%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more27%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

218.7 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 208.570%
Total over 218.550%
Total over 228.530%
Total from 209 to 22839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GRon Harper Jr.started
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
CLuka Garzastarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·HOU
Feb 3 at DAL
last game
Feb 2 at IND
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 4, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · g league - two-wayOut
BOSAnfernee Simons · personal reasonsOut
BOSChris Boucher · personal reasonsOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSSam Hauser · right thumb; strainOut
BOSJaylen Brown · left hamstring; tightness and right knee sorenessDoubtful
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; injury managementOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevin Durant · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
BOS·HOU
+0.74
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
116.0
points / game
116.0
108.9
points allowed / game
110.0
32−18
season record
31−17
16−8
home record
17−4
16−10
away record
14−13
W3
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
8−2
47.1
FG%
47.6
36.7
3P%
37.3
45.1
rebounds / game
49.4
24.0
assists / game
25.0
11.9
turnovers / game
15.3
44.3
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

BOS · HOU · 98 days
Boston CelticsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 3−6
Nov 1, 2025at BOSHOU 128 − 101
Jan 27, 2025at BOSHOU 114 − 112
Jan 3, 2025at HOUBOS 109 − 86
Jan 21, 2024at HOUBOS 116 − 107
Jan 13, 2024at BOSBOS 145 − 113
Mar 13, 2023at HOUHOU 111 − 109
Dec 27, 2022at BOSBOS 126 − 102
Nov 22, 2021at BOSBOS 108 − 90
Oct 24, 2021at HOUBOS 107 − 97

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Feb 3at DAL110 − 100W
Feb 1vs MIL107 − 79W
Jan 30vs SAC112 − 93W
Jan 28vs ATL106 − 117L
Jan 26vs POR102 − 94W
Jan 24at CHI111 − 114L
Jan 23at BKN130 − 126W
Jan 21vs IND119 − 104W
Jan 19at DET103 − 104L
Jan 17at ATL132 − 106W

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Feb 2at IND118 − 114W
Jan 31vs DAL111 − 107W
Jan 29at ATL104 − 86W
Jan 28vs SA99 − 111L
Jan 26vs MEM108 − 99W
Jan 23at DET111 − 104W
Jan 22at PHI122 − 128L
Jan 20vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 18vs NO119 − 110W
Jan 16vs MIN110 − 105W