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Celtics at Mavericks

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 3 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final BOS 110 – DAL 100
← NBA / Feb 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS32203424110
DAL29152333100
Team box
BOS·DAL
47-96
field goals
37-89
13-39
3-pointers
9-32
3-5
free throws
17-22
47
rebounds
49
27
assists
21
10
turnovers
9
58
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL373696
Jaylen BrownBOS3733113
Payton PritchardBOS352647
Luka GarzaBOS201641
Caleb MartinDAL291353
Derrick WhiteBOS381128

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +23
BOS +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 3 · BOS 23lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 68%, DAL 32% · Updated Feb 3

Expected margin
BOS by 6.8
Expected score
BOS 115.8 – 109.0 DAL
Expected total
224.8
CelticsThe matchupMavericks
−209Our fair odds+209
115.8Expected points109.0
+0.74Power rating−0.23
116.1Points / game114.1
109.1Allowed / game116.6
47.0FG%47.3
36.73P%33.9
45.0Rebounds / game45.1
31−18Season record19−30
7−3Last 105−5
Amari Williams · Anfernee Simons
Chris Boucher · Jayson TatumOutAnthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving
P.J. Washington

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · DAL chance
Our model fair67.7%32.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−20968%————
DALDallas Mavericks+20932%————
SpreadBOS by 6.8
BOSBoston Celtics−6.8our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+6.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.8
Over224.8our total————
Under224.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 6.8 expected
Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%
← BOS wins byDAL wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more59%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more43%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.8 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·DAL
Feb 1 vs MIL
last game
Jan 31 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 3, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · g league - two-wayOut
BOSAnfernee Simons · personal reasonsOut
BOSChris Boucher · personal reasonsOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALP.J. Washington · concussion protocolOut
DALBrandon Williams · right lower leg; contusionDoubtful
DALD'Angelo Russell · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayProbable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayProbable
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
BOS·DAL
+0.74
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
116.1
points / game
114.1
109.1
points allowed / game
116.6
31−18
season record
19−30
16−8
home record
14−14
15−10
away record
5−16
W2
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
5−5
47.0
FG%
47.3
36.7
3P%
33.9
45.0
rebounds / game
45.1
23.9
assists / game
25.2
12.0
turnovers / game
15.1
44.0
points in paint / game
53.7

Rating Trend

BOS · DAL · 97 days
Boston CelticsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 2−8
Feb 6, 2025at BOSDAL 127 − 120
Jan 25, 2025at DALBOS 122 − 107
Jun 17, 2024at BOSBOS 106 − 88post
Jun 14, 2024at DALDAL 122 − 84post
Jun 12, 2024at DALBOS 106 − 99post
Jun 9, 2024at BOSBOS 105 − 98post
Jun 6, 2024at BOSBOS 107 − 89post
Mar 1, 2024at BOSBOS 138 − 110
Jan 22, 2024at DALBOS 119 − 110
Jan 5, 2023at DALBOS 124 − 95

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Feb 1vs MIL107 − 79W
Jan 30vs SAC112 − 93W
Jan 28vs ATL106 − 117L
Jan 26vs POR102 − 94W
Jan 24at CHI111 − 114L
Jan 23at BKN130 − 126W
Jan 21vs IND119 − 104W
Jan 19at DET103 − 104L
Jan 17at ATL132 − 106W
Jan 15at MIA119 − 114W

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Jan 31at HOU107 − 111L
Jan 29vs CHA121 − 123L
Jan 28vs MIN105 − 118L
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W
Jan 17vs UTAH138 − 120W
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W
Jan 14vs DEN109 − 118L
Jan 12vs BKN113 − 105W