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Thunder at Nuggets

NBA · Friday, Apr 10 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final OKC 107 – DEN 127
← NBA / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC27243422107
DEN34253137127
Team box
OKC·DEN
42-99
field goals
47-93
14-44
3-pointers
21-43
9-12
free throws
12-13
46
rebounds
49
25
assists
28
13
turnovers
17
46
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jonas ValanciunasDEN3223174
Branden CarlsonOKC3723125
Julian StrawtherDEN342243
David RoddyDEN262120
Kenrich WilliamsOKC3215121
Jared McCainOKC251512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +21
OKC +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 21 · OKC 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 64%, DEN 36% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
OKC by 6.1
Expected score
OKC 120.0 – 113.9 DEN
Expected total
233.9
ThunderThe matchupNuggets
−178Our fair odds+178
120.0Expected points113.9
+1.33Power rating+0.52
119.4Points / game121.9
107.3Allowed / game117.0
48.6FG%49.7
36.53P%39.4
44.2Rebounds / game43.7
64−16Season record52−28
9−1Last 1010−0
Ajay Mitchell · Alex Caruso
Cason Wallace · Chet Holmgren
Isaiah HartensteinOutPeyton Watson · Spencer Jones

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · DEN chance
Our model fair64.0%36.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17864%————
DENDenver Nuggets+17836%————
SpreadOKC by 6.1
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−6.1our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets+6.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.9
Over233.9our total————
Under233.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 6.1 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%
← OKC wins byDEN wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more57%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more41%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.9 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.550%
Total over 243.531%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GJared McCainstarted
GNikola Topicstarted
CBranden Carlsonstarted
Denver Nuggets
GTim Hardaway Jr.started
GTyus Jonesstarted
GBruce Brownstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
CJonas Valanciunasstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·DEN
Apr 8 at LAC
last game
Apr 8 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 10, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · left ankle; injury managementOut
OKCAlex Caruso · rest - restOut
OKCCason Wallace · left great toe; sorenessOut
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; spasmsOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · left soleus; injury managementOut
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; sorenessOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; injury managementOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right achilles; tendinitisOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · right oblique; injury managementOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Denver Nuggets
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENSpencer Jones · right hamstring; strainOut
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; injury managementQuestionable
DENCameron Johnson · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; injury management/right hip flexor strainQuestionable
DENJamal Murray · right shoulder; impingementQuestionable
DENNikola Jokic · right wrist; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
OKC·DEN
+1.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.52
119.4
points / game
121.9
107.3
points allowed / game
117.0
64−16
season record
52−28
34−7
home record
27−13
30−9
away record
25−15
W7
streak
W10
9−1
last 10
10−0
48.6
FG%
49.7
36.5
3P%
39.4
44.2
rebounds / game
43.7
25.7
assists / game
29.0
12.6
turnovers / game
12.8
49.3
points in paint / game
49.5

Rating Trend

OKC · DEN · 157 days
Oklahoma City ThunderDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 3−7
Mar 9at OKCOKC 129 − 126
Feb 27at OKCOKC 127 − 121
Feb 1at DENOKC 121 − 111
May 18, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 93post
May 15, 2025at DENDEN 119 − 107post
May 13, 2025at OKCOKC 112 − 105post
May 11, 2025at DENOKC 92 − 87post
May 9, 2025at DENDEN 113 − 104post
May 7, 2025at OKCOKC 149 − 106post
May 5, 2025at OKCDEN 121 − 119post

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Apr 8at LAC128 − 110W
Apr 7at LAL123 − 87W
Apr 5vs UTAH146 − 111W
Apr 2vs LAL139 − 96W
Mar 30vs DET114 − 110W
Mar 29vs NY111 − 100W
Mar 27vs CHI131 − 113W
Mar 25at BOS109 − 119L
Mar 23at PHI123 − 103W
Mar 21at WSH132 − 111W

DEN · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Apr 8vs MEM136 − 119W
Apr 6vs POR137 − 132W
Apr 4vs SA136 − 134W
Apr 1at UTAH130 − 117W
Mar 29vs GS116 − 93W
Mar 27vs UTAH135 − 129W
Mar 25vs DAL142 − 135W
Mar 24at PHX125 − 123W
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W
Mar 20vs TOR121 − 115W