bayesRatings

Warriors at Nuggets

NBA · Sunday, Mar 29 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final GS 93 – DEN 116
← NBA / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS2825211993
DEN23234030116
Team box
GS·DEN
35-83
field goals
43-86
14-42
3-pointers
19-40
9-11
free throws
11-12
41
rebounds
40
29
assists
31
15
turnovers
12
36
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN3625158
Brandin PodziemskiGS322352
Kristaps PorzingisGS292332
Jamal MurrayDEN342067
Gary Payton IIGS211651
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN261632

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +23
GS +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 23 · GS 13lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 36%, DEN 64% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
DEN by 4.3
Expected score
DEN 119.0 – 114.7 GS
Expected total
233.7
WarriorsThe matchupNuggets
+178Our fair odds−178
114.7Expected points119.0
+0.09Power rating+0.46
115.2Points / game121.3
114.9Allowed / game116.9
46.2FG%49.6
35.43P%39.4
42.6Rebounds / game43.5
36−38Season record47−28
4−6Last 108−2
Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Moses Moody · Stephen CurryOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · DEN chance
Our model fair36.0%64.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+17836%————
DENDenver Nuggets−17864%————
SpreadDEN by 4.3
GSGolden State Warriors+4.3our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.7
Over233.7our total————
Under233.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.3 expected
Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%
← GS wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more52%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more37%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.7 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·DEN
Mar 27 vs WSH
last game
Mar 27 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 29, 5:00 PM ET
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · left patellar tendon; surgeryOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementQuestionable
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; strainQuestionable
GSWill Richard · left heel; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
GS·DEN
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
115.2
points / game
121.3
114.9
points allowed / game
116.9
36−38
season record
47−28
21−15
home record
23−13
15−23
away record
24−15
W3
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
8−2
46.2
FG%
49.6
35.4
3P%
39.4
42.6
rebounds / game
43.5
29.0
assists / game
28.7
15.8
turnovers / game
13.0
44.9
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

GS · DEN · 145 days
Golden State WarriorsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 7−3
Feb 22at GSGS 128 − 117
Nov 7, 2025at DENDEN 129 − 104
Oct 23, 2025at GSGS 137 − 131
Apr 4, 2025at GSGS 118 − 104
Mar 17, 2025at GSDEN 114 − 105
Dec 3, 2024at DENDEN 119 − 115
Feb 25, 2024at GSDEN 119 − 103
Jan 4, 2024at GSDEN 130 − 127
Dec 25, 2023at DENDEN 120 − 114
Nov 8, 2023at DENDEN 108 − 105

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Mar 27vs WSH131 − 126W
Mar 25vs BKN109 − 106W
Mar 23at DAL137 − 131W
Mar 21at ATL110 − 126L
Mar 20at DET101 − 115L
Mar 18at BOS99 − 120L
Mar 16at WSH125 − 117W
Mar 15at NY107 − 110L
Mar 13vs MIN117 − 127L
Mar 10vs CHI124 − 130L

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Mar 27vs UTAH135 − 129W
Mar 25vs DAL142 − 135W
Mar 24at PHX125 − 123W
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W
Mar 20vs TOR121 − 115W
Mar 18at MEM118 − 125L
Mar 17vs PHI124 − 96W
Mar 14at LAL125 − 127L
Mar 12at SA136 − 131W
Mar 11vs HOU129 − 93W