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Nuggets at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 18 · 7:30 PM CT · FedExForum · Final DEN 118 – MEM 125
← NBA / Mar 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN30303127118
MEM31293926125
Team box
DEN·MEM
44-90
field goals
42-98
13-36
3-pointers
16-49
17-22
free throws
25-32
46
rebounds
48
34
assists
22
19
turnovers
10
58
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN3929149
Christian BraunDEN412675
Ty JeromeMEM252199
Cameron JohnsonDEN332063
Jamal MurrayDEN4119812
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM231910

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +11
DEN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 11 · DEN 3lead changes: 21

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 64%, MEM 36% · Updated Mar 18

Expected margin
DEN by 4.3
Expected score
DEN 123.4 – 119.0 MEM
Expected total
242.4
NuggetsThe matchupGrizzlies
−174Our fair odds+174
123.4Expected points119.0
+0.43Power rating−0.33
120.7Points / game115.6
116.4Allowed / game118.6
49.4FG%46.1
39.23P%35.5
43.4Rebounds / game43.5
42−27Season record23−44
5−5Last 102−8
Aaron Gordon · Curtis Jones
DaRon Holmes II · KJ Simpson
Peyton WatsonOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Santi Aldama
Scotty Pippen Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · MEM chance
Our model fair63.5%36.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−17464%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+17436%————
SpreadDEN by 4.3
DENDenver Nuggets−4.3our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 242.4
Over242.4our total————
Under242.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.3 expected
Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%
← DEN wins byMEM wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more52%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more37%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.4 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.567%
Total over 242.548%
Total over 252.531%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·MEM
Mar 17 vs PHI
last game
Mar 16 at CHI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 18, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; injury managementOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · left ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
DEN·MEM
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.33
120.7
points / game
115.6
116.4
points allowed / game
118.6
42−27
season record
23−44
19−13
home record
12−20
23−14
away record
11−24
W1
streak
L8
5−5
last 10
2−8
49.4
FG%
46.1
39.2
3P%
35.5
43.4
rebounds / game
43.5
28.3
assists / game
28.6
13.0
turnovers / game
15.2
48.8
points in paint / game
49.4

Rating Trend

DEN · MEM · 134 days
Denver NuggetsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 1−9
Feb 11at DENDEN 122 − 116
Nov 24, 2025at MEMDEN 125 − 115
Apr 11, 2025at DENDEN 117 − 109
Nov 19, 2024at MEMDEN 122 − 110
Nov 17, 2024at MEMMEM 105 − 90
Apr 14, 2024at MEMDEN 126 − 111
Mar 25, 2024at DENDEN 128 − 103
Dec 28, 2023at DENDEN 142 − 105
Oct 27, 2023at MEMDEN 108 − 104
Mar 3, 2023at DENDEN 113 − 97

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 17vs PHI124 − 96W
Mar 14at LAL125 − 127L
Mar 12at SA136 − 131W
Mar 11vs HOU129 − 93W
Mar 9at OKC126 − 129L
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L
Mar 12vs DAL112 − 120L
Mar 10at PHI129 − 139L
Mar 9at BKN115 − 126L
Mar 7vs LAC120 − 123L
Mar 4vs POR114 − 122L
Mar 3at MIN110 − 117L
Mar 1at IND125 − 106W
Feb 27at DAL124 − 105W