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Grizzlies at Mavericks

NBA · Friday, Feb 27 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final MEM 124 – DAL 105
← NBA / Feb 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM34303723124
DAL20242635105
Team box
MEM·DAL
47-93
field goals
37-88
12-32
3-pointers
9-32
18-21
free throws
22-33
43
rebounds
46
29
assists
24
11
turnovers
21
58
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cam SpencerMEM252523
Brandon WilliamsDAL261684
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM2516101
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM221523
Daniel GaffordDAL201450
Dwight PowellDAL2313111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +34
MEM +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 0 · MEM 34lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 48%, DAL 52% · Updated Feb 27

Expected margin
MEM by 0.1
Expected score
MEM 118.2 – 118.2 DAL
Expected total
236.4
GrizzliesThe matchupMavericks
+108Our fair odds−108
118.2Expected points118.2
−0.20Power rating−0.30
115.4Points / game114.5
118.1Allowed / game117.9
46.1FG%47.6
35.03P%34.0
44.5Rebounds / game44.6
21−36Season record21−37
3−7Last 102−8
Brandon Clarke · Cedric Coward
Ja Morant · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Kyle AndersonOutCooper Flagg · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving · Marvin Bagley III

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · DAL chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+10848%————
DALDallas Mavericks−10852%————
SpreadMEM by 0.1
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−0.1our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.4
Over236.4our total————
Under236.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 0.1 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%
← MEM wins byDAL wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more40%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more27%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.4 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GScotty Pippen Jr.started
GJavon Smallstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·DAL
Feb 25 vs GS
last game
Feb 26 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 27, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; posterior capsule sprainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMKyle Anderson · not with teamOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMTy Jerome · left thigh; contusionDoubtful
Dallas Mavericks
DALCooper Flagg · left midfoot; sprainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMarvin Bagley III · neck; sprainOut
DALKlay Thompson · restDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALP.J. Washington · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALCaleb Martin · low back; sorenessQuestionable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
MEM·DAL
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.30
115.4
points / game
114.5
118.1
points allowed / game
117.9
21−36
season record
21−37
12−17
home record
14−17
9−19
away record
7−20
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
2−8
46.1
FG%
47.6
35.0
3P%
34.0
44.5
rebounds / game
44.6
28.8
assists / game
25.1
15.2
turnovers / game
14.7
49.7
points in paint / game
54.2

Rating Trend

MEM · DAL · 115 days
Memphis GrizzliesDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 3−7
Nov 22, 2025at DALMEM 102 − 96
Nov 7, 2025at MEMMEM 118 − 104
Apr 13, 2025at MEMMEM 132 − 97
Mar 7, 2025at DALMEM 122 − 111
Jan 6, 2025at MEMMEM 119 − 104
Dec 3, 2024at DALDAL 121 − 116
Jan 9, 2024at DALMEM 120 − 103
Dec 11, 2023at MEMDAL 120 − 113
Dec 1, 2023at DALMEM 108 − 94
Oct 30, 2023at MEMDAL 125 − 110

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Feb 25vs GS112 − 133L
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W
Feb 11at DEN116 − 122L
Feb 9at GS113 − 114L
Feb 7at POR115 − 122L
Feb 6at POR115 − 135L
Feb 4at SAC129 − 125W
Feb 2vs MIN137 − 128W

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Feb 26vs SAC121 − 130L
Feb 24at BKN123 − 114W
Feb 22at IND134 − 130W
Feb 20at MIN111 − 122L
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L
Feb 7at SA125 − 138L
Feb 5vs SA123 − 135L
Feb 3vs BOS100 − 110L
Jan 31at HOU107 − 111L