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Mavericks at Pacers

NBA · Sunday, Feb 22 · 4:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final DAL 134 – IND 130
← NBA / Feb 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL36353231134
IND33332935130
Team box
DAL·IND
51-94
field goals
47-94
11-28
3-pointers
20-42
21-32
free throws
16-20
45
rebounds
39
29
assists
37
11
turnovers
16
64
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND293083
Khris MiddletonDAL302577
P.J. WashingtonDAL372392
Andrew NembhardIND3022111
Jarace WalkerIND341896
Naji MarshallDAL261722

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +11
DAL +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 3 · DAL 11lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 43%, IND 57% · Updated Feb 22

Expected margin
IND by 1.6
Expected score
IND 116.8 – 115.2 DAL
Expected total
231.9
MavericksThe matchupPacers
+131Our fair odds−131
115.2Expected points116.8
−0.30Power rating−0.22
113.9Points / game111.2
117.5Allowed / game118.7
47.1FG%44.9
33.73P%35.0
44.7Rebounds / game42.7
19−36Season record15−42
0−10Last 104−6
Cooper Flagg · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving · Moussa Cisse
Ryan NembhardOut (5 each)Aaron Nesmith · Ethan Thompson
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Obi Toppin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · IND chance
Our model fair43.3%56.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+13143%————
INDIndiana Pacers−13157%————
SpreadIND by 1.6
DALDallas Mavericks+1.6our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.9
Over231.9our total————
Under231.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 1.6 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%
← DAL wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more45%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more30%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.9 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.531%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GKam Jonesstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·IND
Feb 20 at MIN
last game
Feb 20 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
2
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 22, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALCooper Flagg · left midfoot; sprainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayOut
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; sprainOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayOut
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon;Out

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
DAL·IND
−0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
113.9
points / game
111.2
117.5
points allowed / game
118.7
19−36
season record
15−42
14−16
home record
10−18
5−20
away record
5−24
L10
streak
L2
0−10
last 10
4−6
47.1
FG%
44.9
33.7
3P%
35.0
44.7
rebounds / game
42.7
25.0
assists / game
26.1
14.7
turnovers / game
14.5
53.7
points in paint / game
45.2

Rating Trend

DAL · IND · 110 days
Dallas MavericksIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 6−3
Oct 29, 2025at DALDAL 107 − 105
Mar 19, 2025at INDIND 135 − 131
Nov 4, 2024at DALIND 134 − 127
Mar 5, 2024at DALIND 137 − 120
Feb 25, 2024at INDIND 133 − 111
Mar 27, 2023at INDDAL 127 − 104
Feb 28, 2023at DALIND 124 − 122
Jan 29, 2022at DALDAL 132 − 105
Dec 10, 2021at INDIND 106 − 93

DAL · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Feb 20at MIN111 − 122L
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L
Feb 7at SA125 − 138L
Feb 5vs SA123 − 135L
Feb 3vs BOS100 − 110L
Jan 31at HOU107 − 111L
Jan 29vs CHA121 − 123L
Jan 28vs MIN105 − 118L
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L
Feb 2vs HOU114 − 118L
Jan 31vs ATL129 − 124W
Jan 28vs CHI113 − 110W