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Pacers at Wizards

NBA · Thursday, Feb 19 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final IND 105 – WSH 112
← NBA / Feb 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND24233325105
WSH26332924112
Team box
IND·WSH
34-83
field goals
43-98
15-42
3-pointers
11-37
22-27
free throws
15-20
50
rebounds
46
22
assists
30
23
turnovers
10
30
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jarace WalkerIND3019147
Taelon PeterIND251652
Jay HuffIND211581
Ben SheppardIND271532
Micah PotterIND271461
Anthony GillWSH311383

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +17
IND +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 17 · IND 9lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 67%, WSH 33% · Updated Feb 19

Expected margin
IND by 5.9
Expected score
IND 120.3 – 114.4 WSH
Expected total
234.7
PacersThe matchupWizards
−204Our fair odds+204
120.3Expected points114.4
−0.22Power rating−1.14
111.1Points / game112.2
118.6Allowed / game123.1
45.0FG%45.7
34.93P%35.2
42.7Rebounds / game43.5
15−40Season record14−39
5−5Last 104−6
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Obi Toppin · Pascal Siakam
Tyrese HaliburtonOut (5 each)Alex Sarr · Anthony Davis
Cam Whitmore · D'Angelo Russell
Trae Young

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · WSH chance
Our model fair67.1%32.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−20467%————
WSHWashington Wizards+20433%————
SpreadIND by 5.9
INDIndiana Pacers−5.9our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.7
Over234.7our total————
Under234.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 5.9 expected
Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%
← IND wins byWSH wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more57%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more41%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.7 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FTristan Vukcevicstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·WSH
Feb 11 at BKN
last game
Feb 11 at CLE
7 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 19, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDPascal Siakam · personal reasonsOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDAaron Nesmith · lumbar; sprainQuestionable
INDMicah Potter · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
INDQuenton Jackson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayProbable
and 1 more
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right hamstring; strainOut
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
IND·WSH
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
−1.14
111.1
points / game
112.2
118.6
points allowed / game
123.1
15−40
season record
14−39
10−18
home record
9−18
5−22
away record
5−21
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
45.0
FG%
45.7
34.9
3P%
35.2
42.7
rebounds / game
43.5
26.1
assists / game
25.2
14.2
turnovers / game
15.6
45.5
points in paint / game
47.1

Rating Trend

IND · WSH · 107 days
Indiana PacersWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Dec 14, 2025at INDWSH 108 − 89
Nov 28, 2025at INDIND 119 − 86
Apr 8, 2025at INDIND 104 − 98
Mar 27, 2025at WSHIND 162 − 109
Feb 12, 2025at WSHIND 134 − 130
Nov 24, 2024at INDIND 115 − 103
Jan 10, 2024at INDIND 112 − 104
Dec 15, 2023at WSHWSH 137 − 123
Oct 25, 2023at INDIND 143 − 120
Feb 11, 2023at WSHWSH 127 − 113

IND · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L
Feb 2vs HOU114 − 118L
Jan 31vs ATL129 − 124W
Jan 28vs CHI113 − 110W
Jan 26at ATL116 − 132L
Jan 23at OKC117 − 114W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Feb 11at CLE113 − 138L
Feb 8vs MIA101 − 132L
Feb 7at BKN113 − 127L
Feb 5at DET126 − 117W
Feb 3vs NY101 − 132L
Feb 1vs SAC116 − 112W
Jan 30vs LAL111 − 142L
Jan 29vs MIL109 − 99W
Jan 27vs POR115 − 111W
Jan 24at CHA115 − 119L