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Heat at Wizards

NBA · Sunday, Feb 8 · 1:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final MIA 132 – WSH 101
← NBA / Feb 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA37373325132
WSH33192326101
Team box
MIA·WSH
49-104
field goals
39-93
21-47
3-pointers
12-36
13-15
free throws
11-16
60
rebounds
42
34
assists
23
16
turnovers
19
54
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA282283
Kasparas JakucionisMIA262236
Norman PowellMIA252140
Kel'el WareMIA3019141
Tristan VukcevicWSH201452
Justin ChampagnieWSH251371

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +32
MIA +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 9 · MIA 32lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 72%, WSH 28% · Updated Feb 8

Expected margin
MIA by 9.3
Expected score
MIA 122.4 – 113.1 WSH
Expected total
235.5
HeatThe matchupWizards
−262Our fair odds+262
122.4Expected points113.1
+0.09Power rating−1.11
119.5Points / game112.4
117.6Allowed / game122.7
46.3FG%45.9
35.73P%35.4
46.5Rebounds / game43.6
27−26Season record14−37
5−5Last 104−6
Keshad Johnson · Pelle Larsson
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav GoldinOut (5 each)Anthony Davis · Anthony Gill
Cam Whitmore · D'Angelo Russell
Dante Exum

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair72.4%27.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−26272%————
WSHWashington Wizards+26228%————
SpreadMIA by 9.3
MIAMiami Heat−9.3our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+9.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.5
Over235.5our total————
Under235.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 9.3 expected
Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: 1%Miami Heat by 36 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: 1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%
← MIA wins byWSH wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more66%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more50%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.5 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
FMyron Gardnerstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
FJustin Champagniestarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·WSH
Feb 6 at BOS
last game
Feb 7 at BKN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 8, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAKeshad Johnson · g league - on assignmentOut
MIAPelle Larsson · right elbow; contusionOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
Washington Wizards
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHAnthony Gill · right hand; contusionOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHDante Exum · not with teamOut
WSHJaden Hardy · rest - restOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut
WSHTre Johnson · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
MIA·WSH
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−1.11
119.5
points / game
112.4
117.6
points allowed / game
122.7
27−26
season record
14−37
16−10
home record
9−17
11−16
away record
5−20
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
46.3
FG%
45.9
35.7
3P%
35.4
46.5
rebounds / game
43.6
28.6
assists / game
25.2
14.2
turnovers / game
15.6
54.5
points in paint / game
47.3

Rating Trend

MIA · WSH · 102 days
Miami HeatWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Apr 13, 2025at MIAWSH 119 − 118
Mar 31, 2025at WSHMIA 120 − 94
Mar 3, 2025at MIAMIA 106 − 90
Nov 2, 2024at WSHMIA 118 − 98
Mar 31, 2024at WSHMIA 119 − 107
Mar 10, 2024at MIAWSH 110 − 108
Feb 2, 2024at WSHMIA 110 − 102
Nov 3, 2023at MIAMIA 121 − 114
Apr 7, 2023at WSHWSH 114 − 108
Nov 25, 2022at MIAMIA 110 − 107

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W
Jan 31vs CHI118 − 125L
Jan 29at CHI116 − 113W
Jan 28vs ORL124 − 133L
Jan 25at PHX111 − 102W
Jan 24at UTAH147 − 116W
Jan 22at POR110 − 127L
Jan 20at SAC130 − 117W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 7at BKN113 − 127L
Feb 5at DET126 − 117W
Feb 3vs NY101 − 132L
Feb 1vs SAC116 − 112W
Jan 30vs LAL111 − 142L
Jan 29vs MIL109 − 99W
Jan 27vs POR115 − 111W
Jan 24at CHA115 − 119L
Jan 22vs DEN97 − 107L
Jan 19vs LAC106 − 110L