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Heat at Celtics

NBA · Friday, Feb 6 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final MIA 96 – BOS 98
← NBA / Feb 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA2930152296
BOS1523362498
Team box
MIA·BOS
35-84
field goals
35-84
13-40
3-pointers
10-36
13-18
free throws
18-23
42
rebounds
50
23
assists
17
12
turnovers
16
32
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS332972
Andrew WigginsMIA382660
Norman PowellMIA352434
Payton PritchardBOS362411
Derrick WhiteBOS412135
Bam AdebayoMIA351671

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +22
MIA +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 5 · MIA 22lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 30%, BOS 70% · Updated Feb 6

Expected margin
BOS by 8.6
Expected score
BOS 116.1 – 107.5 MIA
Expected total
223.7
HeatThe matchupCeltics
+237Our fair odds−237
107.5Expected points116.1
+0.09Power rating+0.74
119.9Points / game115.9
118.0Allowed / game108.6
46.4FG%47.0
35.83P%36.7
46.6Rebounds / game45.3
27−25Season record33−18
5−5Last 107−3
Terry Rozier · Tyler HerroOut (2 each)Jayson Tatum · Max Shulga

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · BOS chance
Our model fair29.7%70.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+23730%————
BOSBoston Celtics−23770%————
SpreadBOS by 8.6
MIAMiami Heat+8.6our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−8.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.7
Over223.7our total————
Under223.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 8.6 expected
Miami Heat by 51 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: <1%Miami Heat by 21 points: <1%Miami Heat by 20 points: <1%Miami Heat by 19 points: <1%Miami Heat by 18 points: <1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 1%Miami Heat by 11 points: 1%Miami Heat by 10 points: 1%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%
← MIA wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more63%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more48%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.7 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CLuka Garzastarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·BOS
Feb 3 vs ATL
last game
Feb 4 at HOU
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 6, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
MIA·BOS
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.74
119.9
points / game
115.9
118.0
points allowed / game
108.6
27−25
season record
33−18
16−10
home record
16−8
11−15
away record
17−10
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
46.4
FG%
47.0
35.8
3P%
36.7
46.6
rebounds / game
45.3
28.7
assists / game
24.0
14.3
turnovers / game
12.0
54.9
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

MIA · BOS · 100 days
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
Jan 15at MIABOS 119 − 114
Dec 19, 2025at BOSBOS 129 − 116
Apr 2, 2025at BOSMIA 124 − 103
Mar 14, 2025at MIABOS 103 − 91
Feb 10, 2025at MIABOS 103 − 85
Dec 2, 2024at BOSBOS 108 − 89
May 1, 2024at BOSBOS 118 − 84post
Apr 29, 2024at MIABOS 102 − 88post
Apr 27, 2024at MIABOS 104 − 84post
Apr 24, 2024at BOSMIA 111 − 101post

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W
Jan 31vs CHI118 − 125L
Jan 29at CHI116 − 113W
Jan 28vs ORL124 − 133L
Jan 25at PHX111 − 102W
Jan 24at UTAH147 − 116W
Jan 22at POR110 − 127L
Jan 20at SAC130 − 117W
Jan 19at GS112 − 135L

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Feb 4at HOU114 − 93W
Feb 3at DAL110 − 100W
Feb 1vs MIL107 − 79W
Jan 30vs SAC112 − 93W
Jan 28vs ATL106 − 117L
Jan 26vs POR102 − 94W
Jan 24at CHI111 − 114L
Jan 23at BKN130 − 126W
Jan 21vs IND119 − 104W
Jan 19at DET103 − 104L