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Bulls at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Jan 31 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final CHI 125 – MIA 118
← NBA / Jan 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI31253534125
MIA25382134118
Team box
CHI·MIA
46-88
field goals
41-95
20-40
3-pointers
13-47
13-18
free throws
23-31
43
rebounds
47
34
assists
26
24
turnovers
19
52
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ayo DosunmuCHI372989
Pelle LarssonMIA332274
Matas BuzelisCHI332184
Bam AdebayoMIA3621111
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA322067
Isaac OkoroCHI342013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +11
CHI +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 11 · CHI 9lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 40%, MIA 60% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
MIA by 3.1
Expected score
MIA 120.4 – 117.3 CHI
Expected total
237.7
BullsThe matchupHeat
+153Our fair odds−153
117.3Expected points120.4
−0.13Power rating+0.08
117.6Points / game119.8
119.7Allowed / game118.2
47.6FG%46.5
36.93P%36.1
45.3Rebounds / game46.3
23−25Season record26−23
5−5Last 106−4
Jalen Smith · Josh Giddey
Noa Essengue · Tre Jones
Zach CollinsOutDavion Mitchell · Norman Powell
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair39.6%60.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+15340%————
MIAMiami Heat−15360%————
SpreadMIA by 3.1
CHIChicago Bulls+3.1our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.7
Over237.7our total————
Under237.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 3.1 expected
Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%
← CHI wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more49%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more34%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

237.7 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24737%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GKevin Huerterstarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FPatrick Williamsstarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
Miami Heat
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
FMyron Gardnerstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·MIA
Jan 29 vs MIA
last game
Jan 29 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 31, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; tightnessOut
CHIJosh Giddey · left hamstring; injury managementOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITre Jones · left hamstring; strainOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; sprainOut
CHICoby White · right calf; injury managementDoubtful
CHINikola Vucevic · restDoubtful
CHIEmanuel Miller · n/a; migraineProbable
Miami Heat
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder; sprainOut
MIANorman Powell · personal reasonsOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
CHI·MIA
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
117.6
points / game
119.8
119.7
points allowed / game
118.2
23−25
season record
26−23
15−11
home record
15−8
8−14
away record
11−15
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
47.6
FG%
46.5
36.9
3P%
36.1
45.3
rebounds / game
46.3
29.8
assists / game
28.6
13.9
turnovers / game
14.3
53.6
points in paint / game
54.3

Rating Trend

CHI · MIA · 94 days
Chicago BullsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jan 29at CHIMIA 116 − 113
Nov 21, 2025at CHIMIA 143 − 107
Apr 9, 2025at CHICHI 119 − 111
Mar 8, 2025at MIACHI 114 − 109
Feb 4, 2025at CHICHI 133 − 124
Dec 16, 2023at MIAMIA 118 − 116
Dec 14, 2023at MIACHI 124 − 116
Nov 20, 2023at CHIMIA 118 − 100
Nov 18, 2023at CHICHI 102 − 97
Mar 18, 2023at CHICHI 113 − 99

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jan 29vs MIA113 − 116L
Jan 28at IND110 − 113L
Jan 26vs LAL118 − 129L
Jan 24vs BOS114 − 111W
Jan 22at MIN120 − 115W
Jan 20vs LAC138 − 110W
Jan 18vs BKN124 − 102W
Jan 16at BKN109 − 112L
Jan 14vs UTAH128 − 126W
Jan 13at HOU113 − 119L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 29at CHI116 − 113W
Jan 28vs ORL124 − 133L
Jan 25at PHX111 − 102W
Jan 24at UTAH147 − 116W
Jan 22at POR110 − 127L
Jan 20at SAC130 − 117W
Jan 19at GS112 − 135L
Jan 17vs OKC122 − 120W
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W