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Heat at Bulls

NBA · Thursday, Jan 29 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final MIA 116 – CHI 113
← NBA / Jan 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA34282925116
CHI31203428113
Team box
MIA·CHI
42-93
field goals
37-94
12-36
3-pointers
15-38
20-24
free throws
24-29
49
rebounds
52
29
assists
25
14
turnovers
16
60
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ayo DosunmuCHI312375
Norman PowellMIA302101
Bam AdebayoMIA3420122
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA3219106
Matas BuzelisCHI341694
Nikola VucevicCHI3715103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +14
MIA +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 2 · MIA 14lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 50%, CHI 50% · Updated Jan 29

Expected margin
MIA by 0.7
Expected score
MIA 119.4 – 118.8 CHI
Expected total
238.2
HeatThe matchupBulls
+101Our fair odds−101
119.4Expected points118.8
+0.08Power rating−0.13
119.8Points / game117.7
118.4Allowed / game119.8
46.5FG%47.7
36.23P%36.9
46.2Rebounds / game45.2
25−23Season record23−24
5−5Last 106−4
Davion Mitchell · Jahmir Young
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav GoldinOutKevin Huerter · Noa Essengue
Tre Jones · Zach Collins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CHI chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+10150%————
CHIChicago Bulls−10150%————
SpreadMIA by 0.7
MIAMiami Heat−0.7our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.2
Over238.2our total————
Under238.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 0.7 expected
Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%
← MIA wins byCHI wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more42%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more28%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.2 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CHI
Jan 28 vs ORL
last game
Jan 28 at IND
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 29, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder; sprainOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKel'el Ware · right hamstring; strainProbable
MIANorman Powell · lower back; tightnessProbable
Chicago Bulls
CHIKevin Huerter · right low back;Out
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITre Jones · left hamstring; strainOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; sprainOut
CHIEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayQuestionable
CHIJosh Giddey · left hamstring; strain; injury managementQuestionable
CHIYuki Kawamura · g league - two-wayQuestionable
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; tightnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
MIA·CHI
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
119.8
points / game
117.7
118.4
points allowed / game
119.8
25−23
season record
23−24
15−8
home record
15−10
10−15
away record
8−14
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
46.5
FG%
47.7
36.2
3P%
36.9
46.2
rebounds / game
45.2
28.5
assists / game
29.9
14.3
turnovers / game
13.9
54.2
points in paint / game
53.9

Rating Trend

MIA · CHI · 92 days
Miami HeatChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 7−3
Nov 21, 2025at CHIMIA 143 − 107
Apr 9, 2025at CHICHI 119 − 111
Mar 8, 2025at MIACHI 114 − 109
Feb 4, 2025at CHICHI 133 − 124
Dec 16, 2023at MIAMIA 118 − 116
Dec 14, 2023at MIACHI 124 − 116
Nov 20, 2023at CHIMIA 118 − 100
Nov 18, 2023at CHICHI 102 − 97
Mar 18, 2023at CHICHI 113 − 99
Dec 20, 2022at MIACHI 113 − 103

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 28vs ORL124 − 133L
Jan 25at PHX111 − 102W
Jan 24at UTAH147 − 116W
Jan 22at POR110 − 127L
Jan 20at SAC130 − 117W
Jan 19at GS112 − 135L
Jan 17vs OKC122 − 120W
Jan 15vs BOS114 − 119L
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jan 28at IND110 − 113L
Jan 26vs LAL118 − 129L
Jan 24vs BOS114 − 111W
Jan 22at MIN120 − 115W
Jan 20vs LAC138 − 110W
Jan 18vs BKN124 − 102W
Jan 16at BKN109 − 112L
Jan 14vs UTAH128 − 126W
Jan 13at HOU113 − 119L
Jan 10vs DAL125 − 107W