bayesRatings

Knicks at Wizards

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final NY 132 – WSH 101
← NBA / Feb 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY38343030132
WSH22232630101
Team box
NY·WSH
47-90
field goals
35-86
17-37
3-pointers
11-31
21-27
free throws
20-32
50
rebounds
42
34
assists
19
9
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Mikal BridgesNY262345
Jalen BrunsonNY312114
Karl-Anthony TownsNY2619153
OG AnunobyNY271942
Will RileyWSH251761
AJ JohnsonWSH241444

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +41
NY +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 0 · NY 41lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 79%, WSH 21% · Updated Feb 3

Expected margin
NY by 12.3
Expected score
NY 122.1 – 109.8 WSH
Expected total
231.8
KnicksThe matchupWizards
−367Our fair odds+367
122.1Expected points109.8
+0.43Power rating−1.11
117.7Points / game112.3
112.1Allowed / game122.5
47.0FG%45.8
38.03P%35.2
46.7Rebounds / game44.0
32−18Season record13−35
6−4Last 103−7
Kevin McCullar Jr. · Miles McBride
Mitchell Robinson · Pacome DadietOut (4 each)Cam Whitmore · Trae Young
Tre Johnson · Tristan Vukcevic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · WSH chance
Our model fair78.6%21.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−36779%————
WSHWashington Wizards+36721%————
SpreadNY by 12.3
NYNew York Knicks−12.3our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+12.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.8
Over231.8our total————
Under231.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 12.3 expected
New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: 1%New York Knicks by 38 points: 1%New York Knicks by 37 points: 1%New York Knicks by 36 points: 1%New York Knicks by 35 points: 1%New York Knicks by 34 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 2%New York Knicks by 31 points: 2%New York Knicks by 30 points: 2%New York Knicks by 29 points: 2%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 2%New York Knicks by 21 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 3%New York Knicks by 15 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 4%New York Knicks by 9 points: 4%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%
← NY wins byWSH wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more74%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more58%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more41%
Within 5 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.8 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·WSH
Feb 1 vs LAL
last game
Feb 1 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 3, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYKevin McCullar Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
NYMiles McBride · left ankle; left ankle injury managementOut
NYMitchell Robinson · left ankle; left ankleOut
NYPacome Dadiet · g league - on assignmentOut
Washington Wizards
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut
WSHTre Johnson · left ankle; sprainOut
WSHTristan Vukcevic · left hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
NY·WSH
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
−1.11
117.7
points / game
112.3
112.1
points allowed / game
122.5
32−18
season record
13−35
21−6
home record
9−16
11−12
away record
4−19
W6
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
47.0
FG%
45.8
38.0
3P%
35.2
46.7
rebounds / game
44.0
26.8
assists / game
25.4
13.8
turnovers / game
15.6
47.3
points in paint / game
47.2

Rating Trend

NY · WSH · 97 days
New York KnicksWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 0−10
Nov 3, 2025at NYNY 119 − 102
Mar 22, 2025at NYNY 122 − 103
Dec 30, 2024at WSHNY 126 − 106
Dec 28, 2024at WSHNY 136 − 132
Nov 18, 2024at NYNY 134 − 106
Jan 18, 2024at NYNY 113 − 109
Jan 6, 2024at WSHNY 121 − 105
Nov 17, 2023at WSHNY 120 − 99
Apr 2, 2023at NYNY 118 − 109
Feb 24, 2023at WSHNY 115 − 109

NY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W6
Feb 1vs LAL112 − 100W
Jan 30vs POR127 − 97W
Jan 28at TOR119 − 92W
Jan 27vs SAC103 − 87W
Jan 24at PHI112 − 109W
Jan 21vs BKN120 − 66W
Jan 19vs DAL97 − 114L
Jan 17vs PHX99 − 106L
Jan 15at GS113 − 126L
Jan 14at SAC101 − 112L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Feb 1vs SAC116 − 112W
Jan 30vs LAL111 − 142L
Jan 29vs MIL109 − 99W
Jan 27vs POR115 − 111W
Jan 24at CHA115 − 119L
Jan 22vs DEN97 − 107L
Jan 19vs LAC106 − 110L
Jan 17at DEN115 − 121L
Jan 16at SAC115 − 128L
Jan 14at LAC105 − 119L