bayesRatings

Bucks at Wizards

NBA · Thursday, Jan 29 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final MIL 99 – WSH 109
← NBA / Jan 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL2320292799
WSH25322527109
Team box
MIL·WSH
41-98
field goals
38-96
10-38
3-pointers
8-35
7-9
free throws
25-28
43
rebounds
61
25
assists
21
9
turnovers
13
52
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kyshawn GeorgeWSH362355
Myles TurnerMIL3921141
Kyle KuzmaMIL351996
Bobby PortisMIL361973
Ryan RollinsMIL261738
Alex SarrWSH3216172

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +18
MIL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 18 · MIL 2lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 70%, WSH 30% · Updated Jan 29

Expected margin
MIL by 7.6
Expected score
MIL 119.5 – 112.0 WSH
Expected total
231.5
BucksThe matchupWizards
−230Our fair odds+230
119.5Expected points112.0
−0.13Power rating−1.19
112.1Points / game112.3
116.0Allowed / game122.8
48.3FG%45.8
39.43P%35.4
40.6Rebounds / game43.8
18−27Season record11−34
3−7Last 101−9
Alex Antetokounmpo · Gary Harris
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean PrinceOutCam Whitmore · Marvin Bagley III
Trae Young · Tristan Vukcevic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair69.7%30.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−23070%————
WSHWashington Wizards+23030%————
SpreadMIL by 7.6
MILMilwaukee Bucks−7.6our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+7.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.5
Over231.5our total————
Under231.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 7.6 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%
← MIL wins byWSH wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more62%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more45%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.5 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FBobby Portisstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Washington Wizards
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·WSH
Jan 27 at PHI
last game
Jan 27 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 29, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGary Harris · left hamstring; sorenessOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right oblique muscle; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILCole Anthony · n/a; illnessQuestionable
Washington Wizards
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHMarvin Bagley III · thoracic; strainOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut
WSHTristan Vukcevic · left hamstring; strainOut
WSHAlex Sarr · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
MIL·WSH
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−1.19
112.1
points / game
112.3
116.0
points allowed / game
122.8
18−27
season record
11−34
9−12
home record
7−15
9−15
away record
4−19
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
1−9
48.3
FG%
45.8
39.4
3P%
35.4
40.6
rebounds / game
43.8
26.3
assists / game
25.3
14.7
turnovers / game
15.6
44.4
points in paint / game
46.9

Rating Trend

MIL · WSH · 92 days
Milwaukee BucksWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Dec 31, 2025at MILWSH 114 − 113
Dec 1, 2025at WSHWSH 129 − 126
Oct 22, 2025at MILMIL 133 − 120
Feb 21, 2025at WSHMIL 104 − 101
Dec 21, 2024at MILMIL 112 − 101
Nov 30, 2024at MILMIL 124 − 114
Apr 2, 2024at WSHWSH 117 − 113
Nov 24, 2023at MILMIL 131 − 128
Nov 20, 2023at WSHMIL 142 − 129
Apr 4, 2023at WSHMIL 140 − 128

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jan 27at PHI122 − 139L
Jan 23vs DEN100 − 102L
Jan 21vs OKC102 − 122L
Jan 19at ATL112 − 110W
Jan 15at SA101 − 119L
Jan 13vs MIN106 − 139L
Jan 11at DEN104 − 108L
Jan 9at LAL105 − 101W
Jan 7at GS113 − 120L
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W

WSH · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jan 27vs POR115 − 111W
Jan 24at CHA115 − 119L
Jan 22vs DEN97 − 107L
Jan 19vs LAC106 − 110L
Jan 17at DEN115 − 121L
Jan 16at SAC115 − 128L
Jan 14at LAC105 − 119L
Jan 11at PHX93 − 112L
Jan 9vs NO107 − 128L
Jan 7at PHI110 − 131L